After a very active weather pattern last week, our weather looks to calm down just a little bit as we move forward. In fact, we see basically two threats of rain over the course of the next 10 days over the region, and only one of those threats are we exceptionally keen on. Strong high pressure is moving off to the east here at midweek, and we will see our first front coming in behind it for July 27.

 

This front will sweep through about 80 percent of the Corn Belt, reaching its zenith as it moves through the Eastern Corn Belt. At this time, we look for rains of one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch across 90 percent of the Eastern Corn Belt from midday Thursday through the early morning of July 28.

The wildcard on this front will be thunderstorms. If thunderstorms do develop, they likely will be farther south, over southern Indiana and southern to southeastern Illinois. Thunderstorms can push rain totals to over an inch in spots, but should be rather localized, and therefore, we are not making them a big part of the forecast at this time.

However, if you want a key part of this forecast to zero in on, that thunderstorm development will be it. We dry down quickly behind the front on Friday with a quick transition back to sunshine and nearly normal temps. The rest of the week and weekend looks dry and the weekend will be warmer with plenty of sunshine. This pattern continues for July 31 through Aug. 2 of next week, as a strong high pressure dome comes to sit right on top of the Eastern Corn Belt.

This will promote the sunny, dry conditions that will be greeted nicely by crops.

Temperatures continue to trend slowly above normal through next week.

The 6-10 day part of our outlook has high pressure remaining in control through at least Aug. 4, meaning we will have gone one full week with dry air in over the region, if our forecast plays out as described. The next weak front we need to watch will be arriving late on Aug. 4 through the first half of Aug. 5.

Rain totals do not look overly impressive at this time. However, we can see anywhere from a few hundredths to up to a half-inch if we are lucky. Currently, we are downplaying this frontal boundary a bit. We want to see a stronger front develop before we call for good rains after weeks’ worth of dry weather.

The atmosphere will be fairly dry by that time; and if the area is beginning to “need” some rain, we think this kind of set up is one that leads to only spotty coverage. If we in fact do miss this front, there is nothing for the rest of the period, meaning we have just the one threat of rain between now and Aug. 8. So, a lot rides on that system. Strong upper level high pressure is back in for the Aug. 6-8 to finish the extended window.

This kind of pattern, if it does truly emerge as we think, will lead to complaints in early August of “needing a rain” in many areas, even with the over the top moisture we have received in spots in the past weeks.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.