The weather pattern goes more hit-and-miss during the next 10 days across the Eastern Corn Belt. We are dry at midweek and will stay dry through a large part of Aug. 10. High pressure exits Indiana on Aug. 9, and we should see temperatures slowly climb as south winds come in on the backside of that high.

 

That being said, we likely do not see any excessive heat through next week. Rains develop across the region from late Thursday evening through Aug. 11.

Rains are not nearly as impressive as we were seeing late last week. Rain totals will be from a few hundredths to up to a third of an inch with coverage at no more than 60 percent of the Eastern Corn Belt. The best rains are likely develop on Aug. 11 midday and afternoon in extreme northern Indiana near the Michigan line.

Dry weather is back for this coming Saturday, before another significant storm complex moves across the region on Sunday midday and afternoon. Similar to what we saw earlier this week, the moisture to finish this weekend comes across central and southern Indiana, with rains of 1 inch to 2.5 inches possible with 70 percent coverage south a line from Greenville, Ohio to Champaign, Ill.

There can be several strong thunderstorms in this event as it moves through, but for now, the low looks to keep this southern track. The northern third of the region should stay dry.

Dry over the Eastern Corn Belt on Aug. 14, but on Aug. 15, a quick-moving trough rips through Michigan and the northern third of Indiana. This triggers rains from five-tenths to a quarter-inch across 70 percent of Indiana north of US 30.

The rest of the region will stay dry. Then we are dry to finish the seven-day period on Aug. 16. The map shows cumulative rain potential through Aug. 16.

The rest of the 10-day period and even beyond has strong, upper-level high pressure parking over the eastern third of the country. In that time, we have two very strong fronts moving across the western and central states, but falling apart as they move into Indiana, becoming undone by the strong high entrenched over the East. We will not rule out some scattered light moisture in there, but at this time, we do not expect any good rains from Aug. 17-22.

Now, at the end of the 11-16 day period, there is a very, very strong low and strong cold front setting up to stretch from the upper Midwest back through southwestern Kansas.

This is the type of front that could easily lead to pattern change, bringing more rains in after Aug. 22-23. However, that is too far out to really guarantee anything substantial. All we are doing is watching that set up for the time being.

Temperatures will slowly build this week, but likely stay mostly normal to below. Same story for next week too, which means there is no threat of excessive heat in our forecast this morning through at least Aug. 20. This pattern leans toward slightly better rains out of the next several systems over southern parts of the Corn Belt, while northern areas may miss out on rains.

Given the way the pattern has developed during the past week, that leads one to think that by next week, we are going to start hearing of some complaints about a “need for rain” in parts of the Eastern Corn Belt, particularly north of I-70.

Without heat, we do not expect major problems … but the dryness will also not be optimal either.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.