After a rather dry week to two-week period, we are starting to see signs that moisture is coming back to the Eastern Corn Belt. While we still only see two weather systems crossing the state in the next 10 days, both have the potential to have significant rains and excellent coverage.

 

Our first system arrives right away, with moisture for Aug. 16-17. This front began as a massive thunderstorm complex coming out of the Central Plains on Aug. 15, and will travel across Illinois, Indiana and Ohio through Thursday. Rains from this storm complex will be from .25 of an inch up to 1.25 inches with coverage at 80 percent of the state. Now, we do need to put a little asterisk next to those rain totals: most of the state will be in the quarter- or halfinch range. If you twist our arms, some could generate .75 of an inch.

 

The larger, upper end rain totals are going to be limited to those parts of the region where thunderstorms are able to develop. Right now, we think that will be northeast Illinois, the northern third of Indiana, and southern Lower Michigan. However, thunderstorms have a habit of making their own path … so keep eyes toward the sky in other areas too right on through Thursday.

Behind the system, we calm things down quite nicely. Friday this week will be a transition day, where we work our way out of clouds back toward sunshine. We would not be surprised to see a lingering spit or sprinkle the morning of Aug. 18 over eastern parts of the region, but those should be minor and leave quickly.

The dry period stretches from Friday midday all the way through Aug. 22. High pressure will be in control through the period, bringing a cooler start to Friday, but then temperatures slowly step higher through the weekend and early next week.

Side note: It appears that we will have excellent weather for viewing the eclipse on Aug. 21: full sunshine (except for 3 minutes, I guess…) and temperatures nearly normal in the upper 70s (north) to mid-80s (south). Happy viewing.

Our second front for the 10-day window shows up on Aug. 23 and slides across the region through Aug. 24. This could be a very powerful front. We have had our eyes on it for over a week already, but rain totals looked pretty benign.

Now, we are starting to see some significant convection developing, as there could be quite an air mass difference from in front of the front (warm, muggy) to behind (cooler, and drier). So, we are upping our rain totals from the front to be anywhere from a half-inch to 2 inches, and coverage should be 80 percent.

The rain and thunderstorm outbreak starts in Illinois, particularly northern Illinois on Aug. 23, spreading into Michigan and extreme northern Indiana – north of the toll road. However, the front does not move across the rest of the region until Aug. 24. This will have good rain for everyone.

The map above shows one model’s representation of the combined rains from the two events. We think the upper 3-inch and 4-inch totals are a little overdone, but you get the idea. The entire region is going to get good rain out of the next two waves that move through.

The rest of our forecast period is mostly dry, as strong high pressure builds back in over Ontario to our north. As the high settles southward, we may have to keep the door open to a few minor, scattered showers around Aug. 28, but that is not really a strong weather front – rather just minor moisture adjustments along the leading edge of a strong high.

If we miss out on those minor showers, we should be dry right on through the end of the month. While temperatures are going to warm up in the week ahead, we still do not see any oppressive or troublemaking heat in our forecast through the end of the month either.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.