After a good sized front moved through to start the week, we now settle in to a nice, long dry stretch across the Eastern Corn Belt. We should see sunny, warm air over the entire region from Aug. 23 right on through this coming weekend and the first part of next week.

 

Two distinct high pressure domes will cross the region in that time period, allowing for south winds to come up the back side of each high pressure circulation and bring warmer temperatures.

This may end up being a significant warming push over the region as we finish the month and start September with temperatures normal to above normal all the way through.

For the start of this dry period we expect to see a reduction in humidity values, but we will slowly but surely step those up as we go through the weekend.

Our next system arrives Tuesday, Aug. 29 into Wednesday, Aug. 30. This system has been on our radar for the better part of a week, but its timing has bounced around. It looks like we are back toward the slightly earlier arrival schedule now, but the length of its stay is still up for some debate.

At this point, we think moisture for Aug. 29 is somewhat hit and miss, especially from Illinois across Indiana and up into Michigan. Tuesday rain totals may only be a few hundredths to a few tenths with coverage at 40 percent or less.

But, Wednesday, we seem to pick up a bit more moisture. Wednesday rain totals can be one-quarter to three-quarters of an inch with coverage at 70 percent. We have some concern that moisture may linger into Aug. 31, as well, adding another quarter-inch or more.

But, there is some decent model disagreement along those lines currently. Either way, all told, we look for this system combined to bring at least a quarter inch to 1.25 inches of rain to more than 80 percent of the Eastern Corn Belt. This may be the last “finishing” rain we need for soybeans in this region, if it reaches its full potential. The map shows cumulative rains for 

the event through Aug. 31.

This is a little earlier than our projection last week, but rain totals look pretty similar. We see minor rains Aug. 29 and slightly better rain systems on Aug. 30 with coverage under 50 percent on Tuesday and pushing 70 percent Wednesday. Combined, this system should bring twotenths to six-tenths rain totals to about 80 percent of the state. Temperatures remain nearly normal.

Behind that front, we will try to begin a dry down period heading into the Labor Day weekend.

Dry weather for Sept. 1 is likely, but we are seeing signs of a strong front now developing for around Sept. 2 to start off the actual Labor Day holiday weekend. This front sweeps through from northwest to southeast and will bring rain totals from a quarter-inch to 1 inch with 75 percent coverage areas from eastern Illinois on east.

Now, this front looks to move fairly quickly, and should yield a dry Labor Day Monday itself, and we have a better chance of settling in for a drier outlook from Sept. 5 on through Sept. 10.

Temperatures do not look to pull back  too much to start September, and that will get the month off to an above normalstart by several degrees.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.