PEORIA, Ill. — The numbers don’t lie: Corn yields will be down somewhat significantly across Illinois and the Corn Belt in 2017, following two years of prolific production.

 

How far down – many estimates are suggesting more than 30 bushels per acre – will depend on weather conditions during the crucial doughing stage through the time of harvest, crop experts agree.

“So far, populations are going to be down from the last three years,” said Kim Craig, grain marketing director for Bell Enterprises of Deer Creek. Craig coordinates a corn yield survey that gathers data from 120 central Illinois crop fields.

Originally scheduled for last week, Bell Enterprises’ annual survey was postponed until August 28 due to a much-welcomed storm shower that brought more than an inch of rain to parts of Tazewell and Woodford counties. As of press time, 35 farms had been surveyed.

“My preliminary guess is that we are going to be down 30 to 35 bushels from last year’s actual yield. That equates to about 13 to 14 percent reduction from last year’s yields,” Craig said. A cool and mostly dry August has done little for kernel development in the region, he added.

While he projects a dramatic drop in yield for those farming in Woodford and Tazewell counties, a similar annual corn yield survey conducted by the Sangamon County Farm Bureau predicts just a 10 percent decline in 2017 corn yield in the Springfield area.

Popular largescale surveys such as Farm Journal’s Midwest Crop Tour project a 6.6 percent decrease in Illinois corn yield, to 180.7 bushels an acre. Pro Farmer is estimating Illinois’ 2017 corn yield at 181.7. 

 

Pro Farmer’s tour results, issued August 25, projected corn yields in Illinois, Ohio, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska and South Dakota at 167.1 bushels an acre, down just 1 percent from 2016’s actual yield. The estimates are based on assumptions for “normal” weather through September.

Indiana’s corn harvest was estimated at 171 bushels per acre, while Ohio farmers are expected to see yields averaging 163, according to the survey.

Across this region, USDA’s most recent Crop Progress report shows 91 percent of Illinois corn in the doughing stage, compared to the 2012-16 average of 87 percent.

In Indiana, 80 percent is in dough stage, compared to the five-year average of 77 percent; in Ohio, these figures are 70 percent (75 average), Michigan 56 percent (64 average), Kentucky 76 percent (75 average) and in Tennessee, 96 percent (96 average).

Corn dented is at 41 percent in Illinois (46 percent is its five-year average), 40 percent in Indiana (46 average), 16 percent for Ohio (26 average), 11 percent for Michigan (13 average), 57 percent in Kentucky (56 average) and 72 percent in Tennessee (73 average), according to the USDA.

Corn condition in Illinois is rated 32 percent fair, 42 percent good and 12 percent excellent. Indiana corn is 30 percent fair, 42 percent good and 11 percent excellent, while Ohio corn rated 31 percent fair, 45 percent good and 15 percent excellent. In Michigan, 32 percent of corn is rated fair, 45 percent good and 11 percent excellent.

Soybeans blooming in the 18 states planting 95 percent of the 2016 U.S. soy acreage averaged 97 percent, consistent with the five-year average, according to the USDA Crop Progress report of August 21.

In addition, USDA rated corn condition in Kentucky as 19 percent fair, 61 percent good and 16 percent excellent. Tennessee corn was 12 percent fair and 51 percent good, while a whopping 35 percent was declared to be in excellent condition.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) August Production report projected the overall U.S. corn yield at 169.5 bushels per acre. The estimate reflected no change over NASS’ July projection, prompting University of Illinois agricultural economist Todd Hubbs to question the forecast.

“August weather conditions do not appear to deviate enough from normal to adjust corn yield expectations,” he conceded, “However, recent crop tours in Illinois provided some support for the notion that the current crop does not meet the current yield forecast expectations provided by the USDA.”