After a slightly soggy start to the week, we begin to dry things down again over a large part of the Eastern Corn Belt the rest of this week. As high pressure begins to build in, we should see sunshine start to dominate again for Aug. 30, and we have the prospect of at least seven days of dry weather into next week across a large part of the region.

 

However, a couple of hiccups still can make life interesting. The first of those hiccups comes on Aug. 31 – midday and afternoon – as a weak, sagging cold trough boundary looks like it may want to come just a bit farther south, and bring a few showers out of southern Michigan and across northern Indiana, northwest Ohio and northeast Illinois.

The moisture potential is not huge by any stretch of the imagination, but we will have to keep an eye out for a few hundredths to a tenth over areas those areas, mostly north of US 30.

To the south, we likely see nothing and just roll on with sunshine.

Hiccup No. 2 will come as the remains of Harvey work east across the nation.

 

We still think the main part of the circulation will stay over the Tennessee Valley, but we do expect moisture from these remains to work north, bringing some moderate rains to southern Illinois, the southern-most counties in Indiana and all of Kentucky. Rain totals from these rains can be anywhere from a halfinch to more than 2 inches. However the 2-inch totals will mostly stay south of the Ohio River, as it stands right now.

The biggest threat from these rain storms will be the slow nature of movement. Keep in mind that Harvey made landfall on the Texas Gulf Coast on Aug. 26, and we are talking about it still wreaking havoc over far inland locations near the Ohio River nearly a week later. And it has not run out of moisture yet.

That is impressive. But, we see no threat of moisture farther north, meaning a large part of the region stays dry and we finish the week and weekend.

So, that leaves the remainder of the region outside of those hiccup zones and outside of those time frames completely dry. Going forward, we expect to see a very nice Labor Day holiday weekend, including the holiday itself next on Sept. 4.

Our next front is looking to wait until solidly into the 11-15 day period to develop. We will watch the period around Sept. 7 for a strong front with a quarterinch to 1 inch of rain potential and 70 percent coverage. Then, another front tries to develop around Sept. 12, but looks smaller and its precipitation much more scattered. However, that front could easily blow up a lot more as it appears more impressive over the Central Plains a few days prior.

 

So, if it is able to tap into a good moisture source as it moves east, to stay alive, it would have greater potential to flare up here. The map shows cumulative rain potential for next week through Sept. 9.

Temperatures through the upcoming period will have a bias toward moving higher, and may be able to reach above levels for the holiday weekend and next week. However, to start, behind the fronts that brought moisture to start this week, we will stay on the cooler side.

We do see temperatures in the Northern Plains well above normal this week, but the expansion of that ridge eastward is likely to have difficulty, so we are less bullish on major warmth here. By the same token, we heard someone question “frost” the other day. We see no early frost threat anywhere at this time; it should not even be a topic of discussion.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.