By DOUG SCHMITZ

Iowa Correspondent

LINCOLN, Neb. — Despite widespread harvest fast approaching, a significant swath of the Midwest remains parched in summer’s wake, as parts of southern Iowa and east-central Illinois continue to experience severe-to-extreme drought conditions.

“Specifically, moderate drought (D1) was introduced or expanded in areas such as the Minnesota-Iowa-Wisconsin triple point; southeastern Wisconsin, south-central Michigan; west-central Indiana; central Illinois; and east-central Missouri,” the University of Nebraska-Lincoln’s U.S. Drought Mitigation Center reported as of Sept. 21.

“In southern Iowa, a small area of severe-to-extreme drought (D2 to D3) expanded slightly.”

According to the USDA, topsoil moisture in Illinois rated very short to short increased from 51 to 75 percent during the two-week period ending Sept. 17, with topsoil moisture rated at least one-half very short to short in Michigan (61 percent), Missouri (52 percent), Iowa (51 percent) and Indiana (50 percent).

In addition, on Sept. 17, nearly half of the pastures in Iowa (47 percent) and Illinois (46 percent) were rated in very poor to poor condition, with nearly one-third (31 percent) of Michigan’s pastures rated very poor to poor.

According to the Sept. 12 Drought Monitor, parts of south-central and southeast Iowa still remain in extreme drought status, with subsoil moisture levels rated 20 percent very short, 34 percent short, 46 percent adequate and zero surplus.

Clarke McGrath, Iowa State University agronomist and on-farm research and extension coordinator for ISU’s Iowa Soybean Research Center – who mainly covers the southwestern, south-central, west-central and central parts of Iowa – said it’s been discouraging to watch how some areas have struggled all year long.

“With large parts of the state getting rainfall on a regular basis this spring, we had a soggy start to the planting season in most of the areas I cover,” he said. “Then the rains slowed down and became really spotty, and the end result was a tough summer that left 10 counties as primary disaster areas and another 16 eligible for natural disaster assistance from drought.”

With other areas of the state suffering significant storm damage, McGrath said there are a number of rough-looking fields, “so we are likely to see yield maps with colors that won’t paint a pretty picture,” even in neighboring states.

“Not having traveled into Illinois this year, I can’t say firsthand how rough the drought is in their dry areas,” he added, “but if they endured anything like some of my clients have, it will be a rough year for their operations.”

Jennie Atkins, Water and Atmospheric Resources Monitoring (WARM) program manager at the University of Illinois’ Illinois State Water Survey, said soils in mid-September are dry throughout the state.

“Illinois received 0.2 inches of rain for the month as of September 17, 1.59 inches below the long-term average,” she noted. “Dry weather in August and September has led to low soil moisture across Illinois.

“Moisture levels at 2-inch depths have declined 84 percent in September to a statewide average of 0.16 water fraction by volume. Soils at several locations monitored were near or at the wilting points.”

Conversely, warmer temperatures and little rain in Indiana have helped with drydown for the state’s corn and soybeans, said Greg Matli, USDA’s Indiana state statistician. “Much of western Indiana was categorized as abnormally dry by the U.S. Drought Monitor,” he said.

“Some areas of the state did receive some residual rainfall from Hurricane Irma, but it was not substantial. Statewide precipitation was 0.27 inches, below average by 0.52 inches.”

Like Indiana, warm, dry weather the week ending Sept. 17 in Michigan assisted corn with drydown. “However, additional rain is needed for many to finish off late-planted crops,” said Marlo Johnson, director of the USDA’s Great Lakes regional office.

While not as severely or moderately parched as the other Midwest states, Ohio didn’t escape the abnormally dry conditions this summer.

“Limited rain fell over the week (ending Sept. 17), extending a dry spell as growers gear up for harvest,” said Cheryl Turner, Ohio state statistician. “Very little residual rainfall from Hurricane Irma was available, and most of the state’s rain fell in southern and central Ohio.”

McGrath said all indications are the 2017 crop year might bring as much or more yield variability than any year in recent memory. “The rains were just so spotty and sporadic in areas. Even in areas where the Drought Monitor indicates some of the worst conditions, there were small pockets where timely rains fell.”

Although it’s too early to tell, he said, “So far, the majority of guys in south-central Iowa are telling me that they are expecting yields to be from 60-80 bushels an acre less than the last year or two. There are areas where the yield hit will be higher, though.

“Soybeans are more of a wild guess since we don’t have as many early results or good ways to estimate pre-harvest yields. But I’d be surprised to hear of many bean fields in south-central Iowa coming within 15 bushels per acre of the last couple of years’ yields, and some will be hurt a lot worse.

“It has been a rough year for about anyone in the state. When commodity prices are this low for this long, it takes a huge toll,” he said, adding, “operations are just trying to survive the low prices as best they can.”