We started off the month of November with a weather pattern acting somewhat bi-polar. Cold, damp weather gave way to spring-like weather, complete with a severe weather outbreak over central and southern Indiana. We took our time coming down from that plateau the past couple of days, but we now can say that our weather has decided to get back to acting like nearly typical November conditions.

Temperatures will be back in a more believable zone, even spending the latter part of this week below normal. And, we should not have to utter the words “tornado warning” again in 2017. Let’s take a look at what we have coming at us in the Midwest as we get closer and closer to Turkey Day.

Temperatures have bottomed out here as we kick off the second half of the week. We will be below normal the rest of this week, with temperatures similar each day from Nov. 8-10. The map shows temperatures as they relate to normal on Nov. 10 – it’s a little chilly! Our dry weather pattern that kicked off this past Monday will continue through the rest of the week and start of the weekend as well. Sunshine should dominate through the period.

Our next chance of inclement weather develops for the second half of the weekend. Scattered showers on Nov. 12 greet us from southern Wisconsin down through central Illinois, and they will spread east across Indiana through Sunday midday and afternoon. By the morning of Nov. 13, they will exit east across Ohio.

These showers are not all that impressive. Moisture totals will be no more than a few hundredths to perhaps three-tenths of an inch, but coverage could end up pushing 70 percent of the region. We like the best chances to be north of US 50, so southern parts of Indiana, Illinois and northern Kentucky will be the least likely to see action here. The main thing to keep an eye on with this system will likely be a potential increase in geographic spread.

We don’t think it will “magically” find more moisture to bring us, but it could expand to take this light moisture over more areas before it leaves.

Behind that system, we are back to dry weather for Monday and Tuesday, with temperatures near normal. There likely will not be a major fall off in temperatures to start next week. At midweek we have another minor trough slipping through with a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch of moisture with it. This will be for Wednesday, Nov. 15. Moisture is not impressive, and this may just be a precursor to a much bigger system we have on the way for later in the week.

That system arrives either Nov. 17-18, if its current track holds. There is a train of thought that the circulation takes a more southern track, and is not able to move directly into the region. That track likely rests on where cold, Canadian high pressure sets up after mid-month.

If the high is able to assert itself over the Great Lakes, it may steer this system south. If it is weaker, or set up farther north, we have the potential for another significant rain event just ahead of Thanksgiving. Of course time will tell, but we tend to lean toward the drier, colder, “miss to the south” solution, right now.

We think we are moving into a slightly drier pattern for the next two weeks.

Overall, our ability to get back to harvest rests now more on evaporation rates than anything else. We really are not looking for exceptional amounts of moisture over the next two weeks, and we should string together multiple dry days back to back. But we picked up a lot of moisture this past weekend, and cold temperatures do not foster nearly as good of evaporation.

So, while Mother Nature looks to cooperate with new moisture, it might be helpful if she got out the ol’ hair dryer and for a day or two go dry us down.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.