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Rural mainstreet index says small towns weak

By KEVIN WALKER

 

OMAHA, Neb. — Creighton University’s monthly Rural Mainstreet Index (RMI) survey dipped from October’s weak reading and remained below growth neutral, according to the November monthly survey of bank CEOs in rural areas of a 10-state region dependent on agriculture and/or energy.

The RMI, which ranges between 0 and 100, slipped to 44.7 from 45.3 in October, reported a press release from the RMI’s parent organization, Creighton University (CU), on Nov. 16.

“Since peaking in 2013, farm commodity prices have declined by approximately 17 percent and U.S. farm income has fallen for four straight years,” said Ernie Goss, an economics professor at CU’s Heider College of Business. “Not surprisingly, Creighton’s overall Rural Mainstreet Index has risen above growth neutral only three times in the past three years.”

Highlights from the November survey results include, the farmland price index, which fell below growth neutral for the 48th straight month. Approximately 22.5 percent of bankers increased farm loan rejection rates, which coincided with a fall in farm income. More than one half of bank CEOs boosted farm loan collateral requirements as farm income has weakened.

The farmland and ranchland price index for November fell to 36.5 from 39.3 in October. As noted above, that is the 48th straight month the index has fallen below growth neutral 50.

One third of bank CEOs reported no change in farm loan terms and requirements. At the same time, the November farm equipment sales index fell to 26.2 from October’s 29.3. That marks the 51st consecutive month the reading has dropped below growth neutral.

Also in banking, borrowing by farmers plummeted for November as the loan-volume index stood at 49.1 from 67.9 for October.

In hiring, the employment gauge climbed to 57.6 from October’s 57.3. Rural Mainstreet businesses not linked to agriculture increased hiring for the month and at a faster pace than in October.

The confidence index, which reflects expectations for the economy six months out, increased to a weak 40.6 from October’s 37, indicating a continued pessimistic outlook among bankers, the survey said.

The home sales index moved higher for the Rural Mainstreet economy for November, rising to 56.6 from October’s 52.5. The November retail sales index improved slightly to 40.7 from 39.3 in October.

The November RMI for Illinois decreased to 44.8 from 45.1 for October. The farmland price index for the state rose to 36.5 from 35.1 in October. The new hiring index rose to 58.1 from October’s 56.6.

Each month, community bank presidents and CEOs in non-urban, agriculturally and energy-dependent portions of a 10-state area are surveyed regarding current conditions in their communities and their projected economic outlooks six months down the road. Other states in the survey include Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wyoming.

The RMI focuses on approximately 200 rural communities with an average population of 1,300. Goss and Bill McQuillan, former chairman of the Independent Community Banks of America, created the monthly economic survey in 2005.

11/28/2017