By TIM ALEXANDER

Illinois Correspondent

PEORIA, Ill. — La Nina is here, bringing its typical wet winter weather to the Midwest and Corn Belt, according to Dr. Elwynn Taylor, professor of agricultural meteorology at Iowa State University.

With above-normal precipitation favored this winter across Illinois, Indiana and the eastern Corn Belt by the National Weather Service (NWS), the December-February weather outlook and farmers’ planting intentions could be influenced by La Nina. Producers should keep the forecast in mind when planning for 2018, Taylor told farmers who gathered to hear him speak at the Greater Peoria Farm Show Nov. 28-29.

“This La Nina is barely qualified,” the crop meteorologist said, “but whether strong or weak, a La Nina is a La Nina and it is presently here in the Corn Belt.”

Taylor warned farmers to not take lightly the presence of a La Nina weather pattern, which can have duration of up to 14 months, just because autumn has been, to date, generally mild.

“A La Nina tends to have big variations in temperature and precipitation. It has extremes,” he said. “An El Nino is actually better for growing conditions in our region.”

Taylor said his crop outlook for the 2018 La Nina year would “likely” call for below trend-line yields. “There is a 70 percent chance (the harvest) will be smaller than this year. The reason there is a 70 percent chance is because there is a La Nina going on. That’s the best I can do for now. My next update will be after tax day, April 15, when the weather patterns usually are beginning to come into place.”

He told a farmer it is possible to achieve bumper, even record, crops during La Nina years due to the variability of weather pattern across regions. “Heat and precipitation have something to do with that,” he said.

Taylor’s observations closely mirror those of Illinois State Meteorologist Jim Angel, who said in his weekly weather blog that Illinois farmers could experience wetter and warmer conditions after the first of the year.

“La Nina has arrived and there is a 65-75 percent chance that it will persist through this winter before fading sometime in the spring,” according to Angel. “Illinois has an increased chance of being wetter than normal for this winter and spring, with an increased chance of being warmer than normal in spring in central and southern Illinois.”

Wetter conditions are favored in Illinois during the winter months of December-February, along with the northern and Great Lakes states. Looking further ahead, wetter than normal conditions are favored for all of Illinois, with warmer than normal temperatures likely occurring in central and southern Illinois, he said.

The NWS forecast for December-February calls for below normal temperatures in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Plains, along with above normal temperatures across the South. Above normal precipitation is favored across the northern states from Washington to Minnesota.

Combined with colder conditions also predicted in the north, the forecast, “Sure sounds like a recipe for more snow to me,” Angel observed.

In addition to the upcoming La Nina winter, farmers should prepare for a tumultuous decade-long weather cycle that could affect crop management through much of the Corn Belt, said Taylor, who is known for basing his long-range forecasts on historic weather pattern records.

“This is the time to start paying attention to what goes on with your marketing and your risk management, because we are coming into a risky 10-year period,” he advised. “It will probably include the harshest weather year of the century. They tend to be around 79 years apart, and 1936 was the harshest year of the last century.”

An unprecedented cold wave held a grip on much of the northern United States at the beginning of 1936, followed by an epic heat wave that devastated a variety of crops and helped lead to the establishment of government-sponsored crop insurance programs for growers.