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Views and opinions: Pattern to bring more snow before milder temperatures

 

We find ourselves in a cold pattern this week over the Eastern Corn Belt. In general, we have a deep, upper level trough that continues to dig in over the eastern half to third of the country while a strong upper level ridge dominates the west. This is promoting a pattern of persistent cold air in the east, while the west is dealing with above normal temperatures and a rather dry pattern.

We do see the cold air easing some as we move closer to Christmas, but before we get there, we are going to have to deal with a little more snow.

Our next clipper system moves across the Eastern Corn Belt beginning on the afternoon and evening of Dec. 13. This fast-moving system brings another threat of snow to the region. This system is a little different from what we saw this past weekend, though, as the focal point of the heaviest snow will be from southwestern Michigan across through central and southern Ohio.

In that zone, we can see easily 1-4 inch snows about 70 miles either side of a line from Benton Harbor, Mich. to Athens, Ohio. Snows under an inch will be found in a ring just outside that zone, too. All told, this system moves very quickly, but still should have 70 percent coverage of the region, with eastern Illinois, southwest Indiana and northern Kentucky having the best chances of missing out.

The map on this page shows cumulative snow potential for Dec. 13 late afternoon through Dec. 14.

Thursday and Friday should be mostly dry with no frontal action moving in. There can be a few flurries in over the region here and there as cold air stays parked right on top of the area.

But, by Saturday we have good, strong southwest winds return, and that will help temperatures bounce a bit for the weekend. Temperatures on Dec. 16-17 should max out in the upper 30s and low 40s.

We have a minor system moving across the southern half of the region overnight Sunday into early Dec.18. Precipitation can be a mix of rain and snow from I-70 southward, and we can see a few hundredths to .15 of an inch of liquid equivalent.

Coverage will be 80 percent of the area south of I-70, and the northern half of the area sees basically nothing – at least there through midday Dec. 18. However, northern areas do get their minor bit of rain ending as snow Monday night into early Dec. 19. This area should get a few hundredths to three-tenths of an inch with 90 percent coverage north of US I-70 from Illinois across through Ohio.

The more intense rain storms look to develop in Ohio. Cold air returns behind that system.

For the rest of our 10-day forecast, we continue to see a significant front arriving late on Dec. 21-22. This system has the best moisture with it along and ahead of the front, meaning we should see predominantly rain, then changing over to and ending as snow. There should be good coverage over the region.

Behind that, we are dry through Christmas weekend with snow trying to develop out of an upper-level low coming through the Great Lakes on Christmas night into Dec. 26.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

 

12/14/2017