We find ourselves in the midst of a mini dry pattern at midweek. But, the pattern has not been just precipitation free. We are actually dealing with temperatures that are normal to slightly above normal here just a few days ahead of Christmas.

Do not get used to it. Major changes are coming. For Dec. 20-21, we remain dry with a good deal of sun on Wednesday. As southwest winds hold through the period, Thursday will feature some increase in cloud cover through the day. This will be ahead of a front that moves through overnight into Dec. 22.

That front is not loaded with moisture, but still will be worth a few hundredths to a quarter-inch of rain over 90 percent of the region. The moisture will move through in a somewhat “banded” fashion, meaning we see spurts of rain across the area, and in between those spurts, minor spits and drizzle. However, all action comes in liquid form – it will be warm enough for all rain.

We will see very, very strong winds develop as the front passes. Those winds behind the front will be out of the west-northwest, and will average 20-40 mph. The winds and the dramatic change in air mass coming behind this system will be a bigger story than the rain itself.

Much, much, much colder air comes in on the winds behind that system for the balance of Dec. 22 into the weekend ahead of Christmas. Northwest winds may create some lake-effect snows in southwest Michigan and north central Indiana; but generally, we are not looking for as significant of spread of lake snows and lake clouds as what we have seen during the past two weeks.

There’s a significant storm complex developing in and around Christmas. This storm comes out of the southern plains, skims the Gulf Coast and then heads northeast through the mid and lower Mississippi Valley around Dec. 24-25. That track allows for ample moisture to be available.

Cold air should solidly be in place too, meaning this could be a recipe for some significant winter weather for Christmas Eve through Dec. 26. However, at this time, we think models are tracking the storm a little too far south. We think there is potential for a significant swath of snow to move across the region. But, this is also a setup where we can see rain in the south, a heavy snow band near the transition from rain to snow, and then just light to moderate snow further north on the fringe of the event – and all of that can happen between the Ohio River I-80.

We are not crying “the sky is falling,” nor are we saying a white Christmas is on the way. There is plenty of time for the track to move and change. But with holiday travel, it is definitely worth keeping an eye on.

The rest of the 10-day forecast window has two strong, cold high pressure domes moving in from the northwest to the southeast right on through the turn of the year. This means we will finish 2017 cold – perhaps well below normal.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.