Wow … what a ride so far in 2018. In the span of nine days we will have seen the temperatures swing more than 70 degrees – going from -19 F. (in spots) to the mid-50s. Some parts of the region will even push into the lower 60s for Jan. 11 ahead of our next frontal boundary. It is impressive, and we will even state for the record this week, it is a temperature move that even we underestimated.

Now, we also will tell you that this kind of counter-seasonal move never comes without a price, and our price will be paid – perhaps sooner rather than later. Mild air will sit over the state Jan. 10-11 as the arctic high we thought would be able to at least graze the region behind the our early week system remains bottled up farther north into Canada. So far, we have not heard a lot of complaining over that.

We are in the midst of seeing a good deal of snow melt, bare ground will be seen in plenty of areas by the time we get to Thursday night from US 24 southward.

The map shows high temperature potential for Jan. 11 as projected by the GFS model.

Now, we do want to point out a phenomenon to keep in mind; as the warmer air pushes north, remember we have cold ground surface, so we will see potential for a lot of fog, low-level cloudiness and temperatures that may fall short of some expectations. Our biggest concern over this will be across the northern third of the region, where there is the biggest snowpack.

We call this the “refrigerator effect,” where the snow pack and general frozen surface creates a pocket of cold air near the surface that take 5 degrees or so off any moderating push – just something to watch for. But, with nearby temperatures pushing the 50s even in the North, it is not going to be a major issue.

Rain moves into the area late Thursday afternoon and evening and into Jan. 12, and then cold air comes rushing back. The cold air arrival will change the rain to snow, and we could see some significant snow accumulations from Friday afternoon on through Saturday midday. The worst snows may develop over Indiana and lower Michigan, if the track of the low stays as currently projected – southwestern Missouri to Cincinnati, Ohio to Kitchener, Ontario.

In fact, right now, we have to call for snow to continue on through Jan. 14 as strong, north winds and massive wrap-around moisture come in on the backside of the system. But, we expect this storm track will move or shift some over the coming days. Either way, we see cold air blasting back into the Eastern Corn Belt behind the system, and that cold air then stays through the balance of the weekend and the start of next week, including another foray into sub-zero temperatures.

By midweek next week, we try and moderate again, as strong southwestern winds are back, likely ahead of our next cold front. This will allow for another brief thaw. But, we expect scattered rain showers will change to snow late next week for the Friday-Saturday period, followed by cold air blasting in through Jan. 21.

The end of our 10 day window suggests another strong front, with a low pressure system coming out of the Central Plains and moving off to the northeast. This has the potential to bring another round of rain followed by significant snow and arctic air around Jan. 22-23. So buckle up, it’s going to continue to be quite the wild ride, we think.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.