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Views and opinions: January finishes mild, but February should be wetter

As anticipated, Mother Nature has decided to use February to remind us that it is in fact still winter. Going back into last weekend, we have seen a rather active weather pattern unfold over the Eastern Corn Belt.

 

We have seen two clipper systems move through so far, and we have two more systems here for the last half of the week. None of the events have been or will be super huge, but when you add all the smaller snows together, cumulative totals will be a little more impressive.

However, we do swing the pendulum back toward a drier outlook for this weekend through most of next week. Let’s start with what is left for the rest of this week.

Late last week we had some concern about a system lifting up into the region at midweek this week. As with most strong winter storms, this one was going to be all about direction. We are happy to report that we look to dodge a significant bullet here, as the worst of the storm will stay south.

Still, we do have some snow coming crossing all areas of the region on Feb. 7. We look for a coating to 2 inches of snow over areas north or I-70, and 1-3 inches of snow south of I-70 in Indiana and Illinois, and 3-6 inches south of I-70 in Ohio.

As we mentioned, the worst stays south of the river, and parts of northern Kentucky can see 5-7 inches of snow.

Dry, but cold, weather is in for Wednesday night and Feb. 8 with high pressure setting up over northeast Indiana and northwest Ohio Thursday evening.

Behind that high, we have a significant system moving in for Feb. 9, and it holds over the northern part of the region all the way through Feb. 10. We are concerned about significant snows from US 24 northward in Indiana and Illinois (US 30 northward in Ohio) aided by some lake enhancement. Right now we see potential for 3-8 inches of snow from US 24/30 northward over the day and a half period from Friday morning through Saturday evening. We expect basically nothing, maybe a coating to an inch or two totals south of US 24, and nothing south of I-70.

The reason we see nothing south of I-70 is because we think temps have a good shot at making it to freezing or above in those areas for Feb. 9-10.

This is not a system that is driven by “track” as much, as we think it is a feature born of warm air over running cold air. Add the lake enhancement, and it has a better chance at coming to fruition. This system could put quite the exclamation point on the week in the north.

We turn colder for the weekend with subzero temps in over a large part of northern Indiana the morning of Feb. 11. Dry weather is here for Feb. 12-14 as the atmosphere resets following the active week.

So, while we miss the potential big system statewide here at midweek, we still have some decent snow potential for the week, especially when you add up multiple little events. All told, for the week, including what snow we saw to kick it off this past weekend and Monday night-Tuesday, we could see 8-12 inches of snow combined for the week from US 24 and US 30 northward, 3-6 inches from US 24 to US 50, and a coating to 3 inches south of US 50.

That’s a nice, snowy start to the month of February. The map puts that graphically – it shows combined snow totals from Feb. 7 through midday Feb. 11.

In the extended 11-16 day period, the dry weather continues for Feb. 15 through Feb. 18. However, a powerful low comes out of the Central Plains and moves across our region for Feb. 19-20, and it can bring half to 1 1/2 inches of liquid equivalent precipitation potential.

Given the fact that we look to remain cold through most of the extended period, that would bring an argument of significant snow back in as we head toward President’s Day.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

 

2/8/2018