We have been able to see a little drier weather cover the region during the past few days – a stark contrast to last week’s weather. Sun poked through this past Sunday, and it – along with warmer than normal temperatures – has allowed for excellent drying weather. We will have to hit pause on that.

We find ourselves mostly dry here at midweek, but there is a caveat, and that comes at for areas to the south. We have a significant wave of moisture passing by to the south of the Ohio River for Feb. 28, and that may throw a slight curve ball into the mix. Out of this wave, we see rain in Kentucky and West Virginia through March 1, and we are leaving open the possibility that some minor moisture drifts north of the Ohio River over southern Indiana, southern Illinois and southern Ohio.

We would be talking mostly about the far southern tier counties particularly in southwestern Indiana and southern Ohio, but the entire southern tip of Illinois could be affected. Clouds from this disturbance could easily extend up to the I-70 corridor. So, while most of the northern half of the region is dry at midweek, the pattern turns “more gray” over the south on Feb. 28.

Our next solid system moving across the entire region comes March 1. Low pressure tracks from central Illinois across northwestern Indiana and into the thumb of Michigan and brings rain totals of quarter-inch to 1 inch to 80 percent of the region during the day. Cold air whips in behind the low as it moves over the Great Lakes, and we have concern for some wrap-around moisture over northern Indiana and northern Ohio.

We need to leave the door open to some snow on March 1 as the system leaves from US 24 northward in Indiana, and from US 30 northward in Ohio. This is a strong low and we would look for several inches of accumulation in Ohio, where the precipitation can last longer. In Indiana, we are allowing for the system to end as a coating to an inch or two of snow. Winds will make this a dramatic event, with winds likely in the 20-40 mph range overnight Thursday into early March 2, which would make any snow up north an absolute pain.

Generally, most of the region that receives rain through the day should be less than half an inch, but the outliers could deliver the higher totals.

Back to drier weather for March 2 through the morning of March 5. High pressure will slowly work through the region on March 3-4. Cold air holds over the Eastern Corn Belt to finish the week and start the weekend, only moderating once we get south flow on the backside of that high.

A cold front brings rain back for the March 5 afternoon through the first part of March 6. Rain does not appear as impressive that morning, and will mostly be from a quarter-inch to a half-inch with coverage at 60 percent of the state. Colder air follows on the backside.

We should string together three more dry days to get through March 9. Then we have two significant waves moving across the Eastern Corn Belt from March 10-12.

Combined, these waves can bring half to 1 1/2-inch rain totals, and likely will deliver below normal temperatures around mid-month. Still, the pattern does not look nearly as active as what we just finished this past week; so we should be seeing improvement in our drainage conditions through the next couple of weeks.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.