We find ourselves in the midst of a complicated, messy, damp pattern here at midweek, where we have scattered showers of varying intensities move through. All of this kicked off on March 27, when rain spread over a good 70 percent of the region, mostly in Indiana, Ohio and western Illinois.

We had some heavy thunderstorm action trying to develop, but it fell short of what we had been concerned about. Rains so far have been from a quarter-inch to 1 inch. But, we are not done yet. Clouds hold over a large part of the region for Wednesday. However, good rains will be limited mostly to Ohio, while only spits and sprinkles will be seen over most of the rest of the region.

It will still be a damp feel, and this kind of set up could easily bring better rains. But we do not have a good moisture source at the moment. That same kind of damp, but not overly wet pattern is in tomorrow as well, but with thickening clouds. Then for March 30, we have our next significant wave of action moving in.

For March 30, we should see rain of a quarter-inch to 1 inch over 90 percent of the region. There can be some stronger thunderstorms developing in there as well, but the key here is that most of the moisture is winding down and will be done by early Saturday of Easter weekend. The upper end of the range of this event – as with the one on March 27 – will be limited to areas where thunderstorms develop.

However, combined rains for the week look impressive. The map predicts one possible outcome, but we think the totals from this model are a little overdone.

With drier air building for March 31, we feel more comfortable projecting mostly trouble-free weather for Easter Sunday, as well. We will see some sunshine, but temperatures only near normal. This is a better forecast than what we were looking for a week ago.

Kicking off next week, we see a fast moving front arriving around April 2. Moisture will be limited to a few hundredths to four-tenths of an inch. But, cold air is coming in fast, and there is a good chance we will see a coating to an inch or two of snow out of that system as it moves across Indiana, Ohio, Michigan and eastern Illinois.

The moisture will have a better chance of coming as rain from I-70 southward, and will be done by sunset.

Dry weather returns for the heart of next week, for April 3-5. By April 6, though, another strong system looks to exit the central plains and bring rain back to the Corn Belt. Our area should see rains from a quarter-inch to a half-inch, and also may raise the specter of a few thunderstorms. Strong high pressure is still expected for April 7 forward.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.