By DOUG SCHMITZ

Iowa Correspondent 

WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. — While U.S. growers expect to plant nearly 90 million soybean acres this spring, planting intentions are forecast to be slightly down this year from the 2017 record level, according to the USDA Prospective Plantings report released March 29.

“Both corn and soybean acreage declined,” said Chris Hurt, Purdue University professor of agricultural economics. “The bean number was about 2 million acres lower than trade expectations, which was a surprise.”

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) acreage estimates are based on surveys conducted during the first two weeks of March from a sample of approximately 82,900 farmers. The report said growers intend to plant an estimated 89 million acres of soybeans in 2018, down 1 percent from last year, or unchanged in 20 of the 31 estimating states.

If realized, the planted area of soybeans in Indiana, Kentucky, North Dakota, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin will be the largest on record.

The report said U.S. corn growers intend to plant 88 million acres in 2018, down 2 percent from 2017. If realized, this will be the least planted acreage since 2015, the report said. Compared with last year, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 33 of the 48 states estimated.

In Illinois, corn growers intend to plant 11 million acres in 2018, down 2 percent, with soybean acres expected to total 10.6 million, unchanged from 2017. Sorghum is expected to total 22,000 acres, up 29 percent.

In Indiana, farmers intend to plant 6.1 million acres of soybeans, an increase of 150,000 acres or up 3 percent, which would be a new record. Acres intended for corn are 5.1 million, down 5 percent. Winter wheat acreage seeded last fall is estimated at 300,000 acres, 3 percent above 2016.

In Iowa, farmers intend to plant 13.3 million acres of corn, unchanged from 2017. Producers intend to plant 9.8 million acres of soybeans, a 200,000-acre decrease. Farmers intend to plant 140,000 acres of oats, up 25,000 acres. If realized, this would be the largest planted acreage since 2014.

In Kentucky, farmers intend to plant 1.28 million acres of corn, 40,000 fewer, with soybean acreage expected to total 2 million, up 50,000. Burley tobacco growers intend to set 57,000 acres for harvest, down 6,000 acres.

In Michigan, producers intend to plant 2.15 million acres of soybeans, down 130,000 from last year. They will plant 2.25 million acres of corn, the same as last year. Winter wheat seedings, at 530,000 acres, are up 50,000.

In Ohio, corn producers intend to plant 3.45 million acres this spring, an increase of 50,000, with soybean acreage forecast at 4.85 million acres for 2018, down 250,000. Winter wheat acreage is estimated at 490,000 acres, up 30,000.

In Tennessee, soybeans are expected to total 1.6 million acres, down 90,000. Farmers intend to plant 750,000 acres of corn and set less burley tobacco, but increase cotton acreage, in 2018.

The report said all wheat planted nationally for 2018 is estimated at 47.3 million acres, up 3 percent, the second-lowest all wheat planted area on record since records began in 1919.

All cotton planted area for 2018 is estimated at 13.5 million acres, 7 percent above last year. Upland area is estimated at 13.2 million acres, up 7 percent.

Hurt said nationally, farmers had some higher return opportunities on some crops that pulled acreage away from corn and soybeans. “Cotton acres in the Southeast and South added 1.7 million acres, compared to last year,” he said. “Rice looked more profitable than corn and beans and added 227,000 acres.”

He noted the total acreage of corn-soybeans-wheat (c-s-w) is down about 500,000 acres in both the western and the eastern Corn Belt.

“This means the primary Midwest is down near 1 million acres on c-s-w,” he said. “This seems unlikely with generally high-quality soils and may be an indication that the corn and soybean acres may rise when the final numbers are determined. Higher soybean acreage is especially likely since returns have been stronger than corn and since this recent soybean acreage is so low.”

Hurt said weather was a factor in the shifting acres, with the dryness in the Central and Southern Plains pushing up wheat prices this past winter, is encouraging more spring wheat acres in the upper Great Plains. Total wheat acreage was up 1.3 million acres.

“The forecast is for a wet spring in the Midwest, especially the Eastern Corn Belt, so delayed corn planting could also add to bean acres,” he said.

He added low crop returns have discouraged some land out of production in recent years. “Since 2012, when grain prices were at their high, about 15 million fewer acres of crops have been planted in the U.S.”

Hurt said corn goals are $4 or higher on old-crop July futures, and $4.10-$4.30 on new-crop December. He added soybean goals are $10.60-$10.80 on old-crop July and $10.50 or higher on new-crop November futures.

“Corn prices can finally turn higher as we begin a march back to near $4 corn for the U.S. marketing year average,” he said. “Longer-term for the 2019 and 2020 crop prices can hold steady to somewhat higher.”

He said soybean acreage will continue to grow relative to corn. “For the 2018 crop, soybeans may be able to see U.S. marketing year average prices near or somewhat above $10, but more world acreage in 2019 and 2020 may moderate beans back into the mid-to-upper $9s as yearly averages.

“Higher bean acres in coming years will help support corn and wheat prices,” he added.

But Hurt said there remain many unanswered questions that markets need to work through: “What is the magnitude of corn and soybean production losses in Argentina? How will the dryness in the Central and Southern Plains play out? Will there be U.S. planting delays this spring? What about summer weather? Trade conflicts? NAFTA? Impacts on agriculture could be very harmful.”