By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor

WASHINGTON, D.C. — So far this year, Mother Nature has been kind to Chinese corn – the U.S. Grains Council (USGC) is estimating the nation will produce 153.54 million metric tons (6.04 billion bushels) this year.

The USGC has been conducting its annual corn tour of China for more than a decade, which gives the agency a chance to get a feel for the country’s production ahead of harvest.

Cary Sifferath, USGC senior director in China for the past six months – as well as former director in Japan for 6 years – and several representatives of Chinese grain trading companies, as well as Texas Corn Producers Board member Charles Ring, spent last week on the tour and finished up the major portion on Sept. 25.
Though planting in 2008 was flat to slightly down from 2007, Sifferath said better weather and more rainfall this summer seem to mean much higher yields. The Chinese government’s official production number at this point is 156 million metric tons, while he said JCI – a Shanghai company providing agricultural trade consultation – estimates a harvest of $142.4 million.

“If we compare that to the official government number for 2007, they had that at 151.83 million (metric) tons, so our number would show a 1.13 percent increase over the official government number for last year,” Sifferath said.

(Last October, the USGC estimated a 139 million metric ton harvest for China in 2007.)

Average yield for the biggest corn-producing province, Jilin, is 6.98 metric tons per hectare, or 111 bushels per acre, he explained. Nationwide average yield is 5.28 metric tons, or 84 bushels. He added this is in spite of spots of drought “here and there” and wind and hail damage. Ending stocks are trickier to get a handle on, since Sam Niu Yi-Shan explained the government’s official number is secret. Niu, USGC assistant director for China, said private companies estimate that in 2007 ending corn stocks were 43 million metric tons and expect it down to 32 million this year (1.7 billion and 1.26 billion bushels, respectively). This compares to estimates of 48 million in 2006 and 55 million in 2002, he said.
Ring said the farmers themselves were also quite helpful with information. “The farmers were very open, very talkative, they responded to any question they were asked,” he said, “and in some parts of Texas, basically, a farmer would’ve told you ‘It’s none of your business.’

“These guys were willing to discuss their problems.”

Niu explained planting is much less dense in China than in the U.S. Whereas here it can average more than 32,000 plants per acre, it’s only about 20,000 in China. Sifferath said Sept. 26 corn prices in Jilin province work out to about $5.98 per bushel, but Niu said that will likely drop because of the bigger harvest this year.

Sifferath noted the Chinese government has virtually shut down any exports of corn, wheat and rice from the country, in an effort to control food inflation. He said experts don’t expect China to export corn for at least six months, since worldwide corn stocks are tight, prices are volatile and “they’re going to want to hold on to the amount they have.”

The government has even stopped licensing new grain ethanol plants – there are now five – in an effort to cap the amount of corn used, he said. Corn use is decreasing because sugar can be used, instead; Sifferath said the country is also seeing corn use for sweeteners go down for the same reason.