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Record beef, pork exports continue into  end of 2008

By DOUG SCHMITZ
Iowa Correspondent

WASHINGTON, D.C. — A top U.S. agricultural economist said record export levels have continued through September, despite current economic conditions that are forecast well into 2009.

“While economic caution flags are flying as we enter the final quarter of 2008, both U.S. beef and pork export levels continued to exceed expectations through the first nine months of the year,” said Erin Daley, United States Meat Export Federation (USMEF) economist.

“U.S. pork exports built on the record set in August, skyrocketing 61 percent in September over totals from a year ago,” she said. “U.S. pork and variety meat exports for the month totaled 163,055 metric tons (just shy of 360 million pounds) valued at $425.5 million. Year-to-date, pork exports are up 70 percent in volume versus 2007 to 1.5 million metric tons (3.4 billion pounds) valued at $3.6 billion – a 64 percent increase.”

According to statistics compiled by the USMEF, the U.S. pork industry achieved its 16th consecutive record-setting year of exports in 2007.

Beef plus variety meat exports also maintained their strength through September with monthly exports up 47 percent to 98,640 metric tons (217.5 million pounds) valued at $396 million, Daley added.

“For the first nine months of 2008, beef export volume increased 33 percent to 750,916 metric tons (1.65 billion pounds) valued at nearly $2.8 billion, a 45 percent jump,” she said.

Funded by the USDA, the USMEF is a trade association that helps develop international markets for the U.S. red meat industry and exporting companies, as well as beef, pork, corn and soybean checkoffs. During the USMEF’s Strategic Planning Conference, Nov. 3-5, in Tucson, Ariz., USMEF President and CEO Philip Seng said limited credit availability, volatile currency exchange rates and global economic uncertainty would create an “uphill climb for U.S. beef and pork exports in many foreign markets for the remainder of the year.”

But Seng said both products have performed extremely well in 2008, and are well-positioned for continued long-term strength.
“We’re extremely pleased with the way beef and pork exports performed in the first eight months of the year,” he said. “But the financial crisis that has plagued us in the past six weeks has obviously had a major impact, and so our members are very interested in hearing first-hand reports from each of the key regions.”

According to Daley’s Nov. 14 analysis, the January through September beef export totals for 2008 stand at 95 percent of 2003 levels for value and 77 percent of 2003 volume totals, while September 2008 exports exceeded those of September 2003 by 18 percent in value.

Daley said currency fluctuations and credit issues are affecting the flow of world meat trade, and we will see exports impacted in the final quarter of the year.

“However, as markets stabilize, demand for U.S. pork and beef should remain strong,” she added.

Daley said Japan, Mexico, Russia and Hong Kong/China were the leading markets for pork exports in September, although Canada set a new monthly record and South Korea continues to grow as a market for U.S. pork.

“Japan is now the top market in volume and value for the year at 335,671 metric tons (740 million pounds) valued at $1.1 billion, increases of 26 and 32 percent, respectively. Exports in September were 38 percent higher than last year, totaling 36,394 metric tons (80.2 million pounds),” she said.

Greg Hanes, USMEF Japan director, said Japan is one of the few key trading partners whose economy has fared well in recent weeks.
“There will be some slowdown there, but not as much as we expect to see in some of the other countries,” he said. “Japan is an extremely steady, consistent customer.”

Mexico, which is the second-largest destination for U.S. pork in September with exports, totaled 29,575 metric tons (65.2 million pounds), up 43 percent from a year ago and putting the January through September total at 267,230 metric tons (589.1 million pounds – a 36 percent hike) valued at $474.5 million, a 48 percent increase, Daley said.

Exports to Mexico peaked in July at 38,973 metric tons (85.9 million pounds), but still remain well above year-ago levels, Daley added.

As for the Hong Kong/China region, it continued to be the second-largest destination measured in volume for U.S. pork through the first nine months of 2008, with exports up 214 percent to 330,601 metric tons (728.8 million pounds) valued at $572 million, a 268 percent jump.

“After peaking in May and June, export volumes were lower in July and August but rebounded slightly during September to close 33 percent above last year, totaling 22,698 metric tons (50 million pounds), with the bulk of the product going to Hong Kong,” Daley said.

Daley said Russia ranked third among U.S. pork markets in September with exports totaling 27,157 metric tons (59.9 million pounds), near the record of 28,000 metric tons (61.7 million pounds) set the prior month.

September pork exports to Canada set a new record at 15,882 metric tons (35 million pounds), narrowly surpassing the 15,853 metric tons exported during July and up 9 percent from a year ago, she added.

11/26/2008