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USDA’s ag census predicts future by looking at history

The release of the Census of Agriculture has often been a time for wailing and gnashing of teeth. In the last several reports, the trend has been toward less farms, fewer farmers and declining influence of agriculture.

While the 2007 census released last week still had some of these trends, there were a few surprises that reflect a new era for American agriculture. For the first time in years, the number of farmers and farms increased. In addition, the amount of crop land held steady, and even the rate of farmland loss slowed.

These trends and the reasons behind them represent a changing paradigm, one that bodes well for a more diversified and profitable future for U.S. farmers. The new farms that have been created since the last census are a new type of farm, operated by a new breed of farmer. These farms are small, less than 50 acres, and developed to specialty crops grown for niche markets.

According to Kevin McNamara, agricultural economist at Purdue, they are located close to urban areas to sell directly to consumers or markets in the city. He predicts that this is not a short-lived phenomena but a development that will continue. Some of these operations are organic farms, while others use natural production methods. This is not part of the organic movement but, rather, a broader development that taps into people’s desire for locally grown, high quality, food products.

Another trend that was reflected in the latest census numbers is the impact of the biofuels market. In the past few years, ethanol and soy biodiesel have revolutionized many rural communities, changed the way farmers market their crops, and infused new life and new profits into the commodity markets.

The increase in cropland and the slowing of farmland disappearance shows that people are willing to own land that can produce corn and soybeans, reported McNamara. The census figurers also showed that 4 percent of all the farms produced 60 percent of all the food. This dramatically demonstrates the impact and important of the large, commodity-oriented operations. These farms, which use some of the most productive technology in the world, are the key to our world’s food, fiber and fuel supply.

Another trend noted in the 2007 census was that more farm families than ever had off-farm employment. According to McNamara, this is driven by a need for additional income to run the farm and, increasingly, by the need for health insurance coverage for the family. So what implications do all these trends have for the future of agriculture and rural communities? First, we are going to need farm policy that addresses the needs of two very different sectors of agriculture. The large farm that represents the majority of production will need risk management and income support programs. But small diversified operations will need different programs that help them thrive and survive.

Second, agricultural interest and organizations will have to pay more attention to non-farm issues that impact the general economy on both the national and local level. Employment opportunities in rural areas are a vital part of policies that support agriculture. Tax policies and health care are issues that farm lobbyists need to make high priorities when representing farm interests to lawmakers.

This census shows that American agriculture is becoming more complex and diversified. The days of strictly commodity production agriculture are coming to an end. Future farm bill and farm programs on both the federal and state level will need to reflect this diversity and to address the vastly different needs of both groups.

The future will not be all mega farms nor will it be all small organic farms. It will be a combination of each - all making their unique contribution to the American farm economy. The census shows us the beginning of a new future for agriculture: a future that holds the promise of profits and opportunities for those who can adjust. Let’s hope the next census shows us even more farmers, even more farms, and even more land remaining in production.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Gary Truitt may write to him in care of this publication.

2/11/2009