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How U.S. wheat and corn stack up

By ANN HINCH
Assistant Editor

WASHINGTON, D.C. — One point of contention between pro- and anti-GMO wheat groups is whether biotechnology significantly boosts crop yield. Another is that planted wheat is on the decline because of competition with GMO crops.

Since 1996 was when Bt corn was introduced into the market (according to a 1997 University of Illinois Cooperative Extension Service newsletter), it could be partly helpful to compare planting and harvest data in the United States for wheat and corn.
Wheat

According to the USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service, nationwide acres planted to wheat have steadily declined since 1996, from just over 75 million acres then to 58.6 million this year. Yield, however, has slowly increased – with dips and rises – from 36.3 bushels per acre in 1996 to 44.9 last year.

Each year between planting and harvest, some acres of any crop are lost to disease, weather and other factors. Between 1996 and 2008, farmers lost an average of 9.5 million acres of wheat each year. At the high end were 14.5 million acres lost in 2002, and on the low end were 6.8 million lost in 1998.

Total U.S. production has remained approximately the same during this time period, with slight dips and bumps over the years, from almost 2.3 billion bushels in 1996 to just under 2.1 billion in 2007. In 2008, wheat planting increased sharply on better futures prices, producing nearly 2.5 billion bushels.

It should be noted in 1996, the 2.3 billion bushels came from 62.8 million harvested acres, and that last year’s 2.5 billion came from just under 55.7 million harvested acres.

Corn

Because biotechnology has not been introduced in wheat as it was in corn, Farm World will look at 1996-2008 for corn, as well as the non-GMO 13 years before, from 1983-95. (Bear in mind that not all corn planted since 1996 was genetically modified seed.)

In 1996, farmers planted 79.2 million acres of corn; in 2007, they planted 93.5 million, the most they planted between 1996-2009. The least number planted in that time period was just under 77.4 million, in 1999. The annual planting average between 1996-2008 was 80.7 million acres. The number of acres lost between planting and harvest each year between 1996-2008 were fairly uniform, with the highest at 9.6 million acres lost in 2002. The other 12 years ranged closer together, from 6.6 million acres in 1996 on the low end, to 7.7 million in 2006 on the high end. Between 1983-95, the most acres planted to corn were 83.4 million acres in 1985, and the least were 60.2 million in 1983. This 13-year average was 73.8 million acres planted.

The number of acres lost before harvest each year during 1983-95 varied from 6.3 million acres in 1995 at the low end, to 10.3 million in 1993 at the high end. The other 11 years ranged from 6.4 million to 9.5 million acres lost annually.

Annual corn yield between 1983 and 1995 varied from 81.1 bushels per acre to 138.6 bushels. Data shows a steady increase through the years, with four intervals of a significant dip from one year to the next – always followed by a significant increase the very next year.

Yield between 1996 and 2008 varied from 126.7 bushels per acre to 160.3 bushels, ending on 153.9 last year. The trend also shows a mostly-steady increase, with dips and bumps less pronounced than between 1983-95.

Total U.S. production has increased from 1983, when farmers harvested 4.2 billion bushels of corn. That, however, was an uncharacteristically low year from the 1983-95 time period, matched only by one other, 4.9 billion bushels in 1988. An uncharacteristically high year was in 1994, with 10.1 billion bushels. Average annual production for the 13 years was 7.5 billion bushels. Between 1996-2008, average annual production was 10.4 billion bushels, with just under 9 billion in 2002 at the low end. Production over 10 billion bushels did not occur in that 13 years until 2003.

6/17/2009