USDA increased the 2009 corn yield to 161.9 bushels per acre for September; the August estimate was 159.5 bushels per acre. If the September estimate holds, it will be the highest yield of record.
The higher yield pushed the 2009 estimated corn crop to 12.954 billion bushels, up from 12.761 billion bushels for the August estimate.

In September, USDA reduced the estimated corn price per bushel from $3.50 per bushel midpoint estimate in August to 3.35 per bushel midpoint estimate for the 2009-10 marketing year.

The September estimate of the 2009 soybean crop has the yield at 42.3 bushels per acre, up from 41.7 bushels per acre in August. This increased yield pushed the estimated bean crop for 2009 up to 3.245 billion bushels.

The August estimate was 3.199 billion bushels. The 2009 soybean crop is expected to be a record-high crop. The estimated price for soybean meal for the 2009-10 marketing year was lowered to $280 per ton midpoint estimate from $290 per ton in August.

These lower expected prices would reduce the cost of producing 100 pounds live weight of pork by about $0.50 per cwt.

Pork exports for July were down 13.1 percent from last year; much better than in June when exports were down 35.7 percent from 2008. The July pork exports were up 18.6 percent from June.
Pork exports for January-July were down 19.3 percent from 12 months earlier. Our exports to Japan for January-July were up 1.0, to Mexico up 34.5 percent, to Canada down 7.3 percent, to South Korea down 14.9 percent, to Russia down 30.4 percent, to Australia up 21.9 percent to Taiwan up 7.3 percent, to China and Hong Kong down 71.9 percent and to other countries down 24 percent.

Pork imports for January-July were down 3.6 percent from 12 months earlier. Our imports from Canada were up 4.3 percent, from Denmark down 7.7 percent, from Mexico down 66.1 percent, from Poland down 13.7 percent, from Italy down 16.3 percent and from other countries down 34.8 percent from a year earlier.

Our net pork exports as a percent of production for January-July of 2008 was 17.91 percent. This declined to 14.23 percent for January-July of 2009.

Our live hog imports for January-July of 2009 from Canada were down 32 percent from the same period of 2008.

The futures market has rallied substantially recently. This market suggests a counter-seasonal price rally is possible and hopefully likely. Retail pork prices were down 0.8 percent in August from July. There is a chance that retail prices will continue to decline in September.

Live barrow and gilt weights in Iowa-Minnesota at 268.9 pounds were up 1.5 pounds from a week earlier and up seven pounds from 12 months earlier. The bottom line is that there is an ample supply of market-ready hogs. Gilt and sow slaughter data continues to indicate a modest reduction in the breeding herd. Sow slaughter for the four-week period ending Sept. 5 was up 7.6 percent from a year earlier and gilt slaughter for this period is above normal. Cash live prices Friday morning were $2-2.25 per cwt. higher compared to a week earlier. Average negotiated carcass prices were $0.45-1.18 per cwt. higher compared to seven days earlier. Slaughter this week under Federal Inspection was estimated at 2.310 million head, down 0.7 percent from a year earlier.
 
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