By SUSAN K. DAVIS
Ohio Correspondent

LONDON, Ohio — Predicting future grain prices is never easy, but for Ohio State University Extension Grain Specialist Matt Roberts, who was a speaker recently at the Farm Science Review, corn was a little easier to figure.

“Corn can strengthen relative to beans,” he said on Sept. 23. “In the next four weeks the bottom of the corn market historically occurs as the market tries to figure out how large the crop is.”

One fundamental is known; the 2009 crop is large.

“This year we’re close to eclipsing the 2006 harvest. There will be a lot of storage pressure,” Roberts added.

His suggestion: Price 20 percent of the crop using hedged-to-arrive or futures contracts before the grain goes in the bin.

Roberts doesn’t expect corn prices to drop below $3.25, basis December CBOT futures. A 20-40 cent rally could hit corn by February-March.

“Beyond that you should be playing the basis,” Roberts told the attendees sitting on benches near the stage.

Before winter, take advantage of price rises because the opportunity might be short lived. Don’t wait for the opportunities to turn into multi-day rallies because it might not happen, Roberts said. There is likely to be another selling opportunity.

“If you live near an ethanol plant, there will be some pops in prices but fewer opportunities than last year,” he explained.

When an audience member asked about soybean prices, Roberts joked, “The ones Bob Evans produces over there are really good now,” he said motioning toward the food stands.

“Soybean exports have been weak, and sales are below what we would expect,” Roberts said.

He added that the downside price potential is $8.75. The upside is about 50 cents a bushel from $9.25 (basis November futures). The soybean market is harder to get a handle on especially as the South American crop is harvested.

Another audience member asked about the role of speculators in the market - referring to crude oil reaching $147 in June. There’s a role for speculators in the market, Roberts reminded.

“Speculation is not a bad thing,” he said. “We need somebody to buy our risk. Speculators get us there more violently.”