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2009 pork exports show sharp decline from 2008

As was expected, the value of 2009 U.S. pork exports was down sharply compared to 2008. Both the quantity of pork exported and the price per pound were lower in 2009. The total value of fresh, chilled and frozen pork exported by the U.S. last year was $3.18 billion, down 16 percent from 2008’s level. Despite the big decline, the value of pork exports in 2009 was the second highest ever.
Since hog slaughter totaled 113.6 million head last year, pork exports equaled $28 per pig slaughtered. Increased pork exports is one of the keys to profitability in 2010. The agricultural trade data for 2009 was supposed to come out earlier this week, but was delayed because of the weather. I will have additional information in next week’s report.

Packer margins tightened this week as the pork cutout value declined while hog prices were rising. USDA’s Thursday afternoon calculated cutout value was $68.31 per cwt., down 84 cents from the previous Thursday, but up $9.77 compared to the same day last year.

Loins, bellies, hams and Boston butts were all lower this week than last. Hog prices ended the week higher. The national weighted average carcass price for negotiated hogs Friday morning was $63.39 per cwt., $1.71 higher than the previous Friday, and $4.78 per cwt. higher than a year ago. Regional average prices on Friday morning were: eastern Corn Belt $62.82, western Corn Belt $64.82, and Iowa-Minnesota $64.92 per cwt. The top hog price Friday at Sioux Falls was $50 per cwt., up $1.50 for the week. Zumbrota, Minn. had a top of $46 on Friday and Peoria topped at $43 per cwt. The interior Missouri top Friday was $46.75 per cwt., $2.25 higher than the previous Friday.

This week’s hog slaughter is estimated to be 2.161 million head, down 3.1 percent compared to the same week last year. Hog slaughter has been below year-earlier for each of the last 6 weeks. During this period, hog slaughter was down 5.4 percent compared to last year. USDA will probably revise their estimate of the December market hog inventory downward when the March Hogs and Pigs Report is issued. Since Dec. 1, slaughter of U.S. raised barrows and gilts has been more than 2 percent lower than expected.

The average carcass weight of barrows and gilts slaughtered the week ending Jan. 30 was 200 pounds, down 1 pound from the week before and down 2 pounds from the same week last year. Iowa-Minnesota live weights last week averaged 268.9 pounds, down 0.1 pound compared to a year earlier.

The February lean hog futures contract ended the week at $67.45 per cwt., up 75 cents from last Friday. Today the April contract settled at $68.20, up $1.48 for the week. May closed the week at $74.95 per cwt., June ended at $78.05 per cwt. and July settled at $77.17 per cwt.

Corn futures ended the week roughly 10 cents higher than last Friday.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Glenn Grimes or Ron Plain may write to them in care of this publication.

2/17/2010