By KAREN BINDER
Illinois Correspondent

CARBONDALE, Ill. — Despite lower acreage and delayed plantings, wheat crop development in Indiana and Illinois is progressing well, state and national wheat experts say.

With acreage down as much as 60 percent in some areas between the two states, “wheat prices remain low enough that we need to assess the crop carefully to see if it’s worth keeping. Crop insurance considerations also are in play for many producers,” said Emerson Nafziger, a University of Illinois agronomist.

Currently, the USDA projects exports of all classes of wheat at 875 million bushels, which is down by 140 million bushels from last year and represents the smallest exports since 2002-03 – with only 850 million bushels exported, and the second smallest since 1971-72.
As of Dec. 3, about the midpoint of the 2009-10 marketing year, the USDA reported cumulative U.S. wheat export inspections of 440 million bushels, 186 million, or 30 percent fewer, than cumulative inspections of a year ago.

The USDA’s U.S. Export Sales report indicates year-over-year declines in export commitments – cumulative shipments plus outstanding sales – were down 45 percent for hard red winter wheat, 52 percent for soft red winter and 10 percent for hard red spring. Commitments for durum wheat were up 136 percent, and commitments for white wheat were up 37 percent.

Another factor in the wheat equation is the elimination of many acreage restrictions set forth in the 1996 farm bill. This change prompted farmers to plant what they view as their most competitive crops.

For wheat this meant a loss of acreage to more soybeans and corn, a 19 percent decline from nearly 63 million acres nationwide before the act to 50.7 million acres afterward. Other reduced acreages were reported for barley, grain sorghum, corn silage, cotton, peanuts, dry edible beans and potatoes, the USDA reports.
In Illinois, Darrel Good, a UoI agri-economist, reported the basis levels for winter wheat remain generally weak, particularly for soft red winter wheat in southern Illinois. On Dec. 4, cash bids for December futures were all under, at 77-95 cents in western Kansas, 63-89 cents under December futures in Ohio and $1.08-$2.02 in southern Illinois.

“The weak cash bids in southern Illinois may reflect a high incidence of vomitoxin in the 2009 crop, particularly in the southwestern part of the state,” Good explained, adding the overall weakness in winter wheat basis reflects a continuation of a weak basis experienced over the past three years.

As of April 10, the Illinois wheat crop was rated at 9 percent very poor, 21 percent poor, 23 percent fair, 28 percent good and 1 percent excellent.

“Having less than a third of the crop rated as good or better is very likely to mean that some of the current crop will not (and should not) be kept to harvest,” Nafziger commented.

Likewise in Indiana, Purdue University agronomist Herb Ohm said, “There is not as much wheat planted this year, but the wheat that is planted looks fine.”

The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service wheat report shows Indiana farmers planted 300,000 acres of wheat this year, down about 36 percent compared to 470,000 acres last year and a 35 percent decrease from the five-year average of 460,000. Wet weather during the 2009 soybean harvest has also impacted the crop because of delayed plantings.

The southern two-thirds of Indiana had some of the worst delays, but Ohm said the crop seems to have come through the winter well, with little to no damage.

“Some farmers from Lafayette and south were not able to plant wheat until late October to early November, but it has come through fine,” he said, adding the northern third of the state seems to be on track as well.

Ohm also said it appears the wheat harvest should be right on schedule this summer, regardless of the late 2009 harvest and planting issues.

Nafziger suggested the first things to evaluate in a struggling wheat field are stand and stand uniformity. This evaluation requires that stand counts be made in enough areas of the field to provide a good picture of both numbers of plants and variability.