ST. LOUIS, Mo. — Spring wheat from the United States will help maintain global stocks and contribute to lower average food prices, according to this month’s monthly food price index from the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO).

The higher wheat supply will combine with a bumper corn crop to create near-record cereal stocks, despite a smaller global rice crop. "All told, the size of global inventories of all cereals is anticipated to rise to their highest levels in 15 years as a result of two years of good harvests," stated the FAO.

Global wheat yields, higher than expected, helped drop the FAO monthly cereal price index 1.5 percent in August, down 11.7 percent from a year earlier. More grain means wheat importers, concentrated in North Africa and the Middle East, will pay less. Algeria, Pakistan and Iran will increase their wheat imports the most in the next year, according to USDA.

The USDA forecasts a U.S. hard red spring wheat harvest of 529 million bushels, up from 490 million last year. Spring wheat is the only wheat class to increase in the United States this year, with total production forecast at 2.03 billion bushels.

Wheat production is also higher than expected in Ukraine, China and the Russian Federation. That increases the global supply despite a drop in wheat shipments from leading exporter Canada. The U.S. hard red spring wheat harvest – concentrated in Minnesota, the Dakotas and Montana – is running later than normal. But the North Dakota Wheat Commission reported quality similar to 2013 and a 60.7-pound test weight.

"While adverse weather has created challenging and sluggish harvest conditions for many producers, and in areas adversely impacted quality, most areas seem to be holding key quality factors better than expected," said the commission.

The FAO food price index, dropping 3.6 percent from July to August, is at its lowest level since September 2010. Cereals comprise a large portion of the index, with a 1.5 percent decrease in the cereal portion contributing greatly to the overall decline.

But more impact in August came from declines in the dairy portion. The dairy sub-index dropped because of declining global dairy prices, the result of abundant global dairy exports and reduced import demand.

"Russia’s prohibition at the beginning of the month on imports of dairy products from several countries helped depress prices, while slackening imports of whole milk powder by China (the world’s largest importer) also contributed to market uncertainty," said the FAO.

Price indices for oils and sugar also declined. The vegetable oils component of the price index is at the lowest level since November 2009. The sugar price index declined slightly from month-to-month, still slightly higher than in 2013. One area not declining: The meat sub-index. That portion of the food price index is up 1.2 percent from July to August and 14 percent above last year.

Along with a lower food price index, food security is improving around the globe, according to another FAO report. There are now 805 million people estimated to be chronically malnourished from 2012-14 – 100 million fewer than in 2002 and 209 million fewer than in 1992.

Large gains in food security have come in Southeast Asia and Asia generally, as well as Latin America and the Caribbean, said Jomo Kwame Sundaram, FAO assistant director-general and coordinator for Economic and Social Development. But those gains have not been matched in other malnourished regions.

"There has been much less progress in South Asia, and very little progress in Sub-Saharan Africa until fairly recently," said Sundaram. Greater food production in Africa during the last decade has helped some, he said.

The food problem globally is not production, as the world now produces enough total calories to feed its population. Rather, lack of access to food – especially when hampered by war, politics, natural disasters and other external causes – are contributing to malnourishment. Failure to improve local and regional agricultural production also contribute to malnourishment, according to the FAO, which notes that great strides in global agricultural productivity continue.

Human and social organization is critical to reducing malnourishment. "Political commitment at the highest level is crucial," said Sundaram. Clear national leadership addressing food security and nutrition makes a huge difference, he said.

Improving governance is also important. Responsibilities for food security and nutrition are spread among different ministries and departments in government, so there is a need for "coordination and coherence," said Sundaram. The progress in hunger reduction is on track with FAO goals for 2015. "This is proof that we can win the war against hunger and should inspire countries to move forward, with the assistance of the international community as needed," the heads of the FAO and two other global organizations wrote in the food security report.