By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook 

USDA’s September hogs and pigs report said the nation’s inventory of hogs was down 2.3 percent on the first day of September compared to a year ago. USDA said the number of market hogs was down 2.7 percent, but the breeding herd was up 1.8 percent compared to September 2013. The average of the pre-release trade forecasts were for the breeding herd to be up 1.4 percent and the market hog inventory down 3.8 percent. USDA said the number of sows farrowed during June-August was up 0.6 percent, but pigs per litter were down 1.6 percent from a year ago. Farrowing intentions for September-November are for an increase of 4.0 percent. December-February farrowing intentions are up 3.8 percent compared to last winter. As expected, USDA revised down their estimate of last winter’s pig crop by 980,000 head to bring it in line with summer hog slaughter.

USDA’s September Cold Storage report said there was 546.3 million pounds of pork in cold storage at the end of August. That is 2.4 percent more than the month before, but 0.5 percent less than a year earlier. Stocks of frozen pork tend to be at their annual low at the end of July. Pork bellies in cold storage were up 135.7 percent from a year ago. The large stocks of frozen bellies have been a serious drag on summer belly prices. Compared to Aug. 31, 2013, beef in cold storage was down 20.1 percent, chicken was down 13.1 percent and stocks of frozen turkey were down 15.0 percent.

Hog prices were higher last week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report Sept. 26 was $101.30 per cwt., up $1.29 from last week and up $9.36 compared to a year ago. There was no morning price quotes for the Eastern Corn Belt, the Western Corn Belt or Iowa-Minnesota. Peoria had a top live price Sept. 26 of $70 per cwt., and interior Missouri’s live top was $75 per cwt., which is $2.25 higher than the previous Friday.

The pork cutout value moved higher for the fourth consecutive week. The morning cutout on Sept. 26 was $120.17 per cwt. FOB the plants, up $5.64 from the previous Friday and $20.79 above a year ago. That morning’s hog carcass price was only 84.3 percent of the cutout value.

Last week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.095 million head, up 2.2 percent from the week before, but down 4.2 percent from the same week last year. Hog slaughter has been below the year-ago level for the last 31 weeks. The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 282.9 pounds, up 1.0 pound from the week before and 11.7 pounds heavier than the same week last year. This was the 19th consecutive week with weights at least 10 pounds heavier than a year ago.

Hog futures were mixed last week. The October hog futures contract ended the week Sept. 26 at $106.52 per cwt., up 55 cents from the previous Friday. December hogs lost 38 cents last week to close at $94.47 per cwt. The February lean hog contract settled at $89.50 per cwt., a loss of $1.90 from the previous Friday. April hogs ended the week at $90.00 per cwt.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain and Scott Brown may write to them in care of this publication.