Search Site   
Current News Stories
Solar eclipse, new moon coming April 8
Mystery illness affecting dairy cattle in Texas Panhandle
Teach others to live sustainably
Gun safety begins early
Hard-cooked eggs recipes great for Easter, anytime
Michigan carrot producers to vote on program continuation
Suggestions to celebrate 50th wedding anniversary
USDA finalizes new ‘Product of the USA’ labeling rule 
U.S. weather outlooks currently favoring early planting season
Weaver Popcorn Hybrids expanding and moving to new facility
Role of women in agriculture changing Hoosier dairy farmer says
   
News Articles
Search News  
   

Hog inventory up 6 percent from June, in spite of PEDv concerns

 

 

By DOUG SCHMITZ

Iowa Correspondent

 

DES MOINES, Iowa — U.S. hog numbers increased 6 percent from June and farmers are expanding sow herds despite ongoing concerns about porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv), according to the Sept. 26 USDA Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report.

"Across the board, every one of these numbers came in higher than trade expectations, so in my mind, this is a bearish hogs and pigs report," said Ron Plain, professor of agricultural economics at the University of Missouri-Columbia, citing pre-report estimates predicting a 3.4 percent decrease.

Plain joined Daniel Bluntzer, director of research at Frontier Risk Management in Corpus Christi, Texas, and Kevin Grier, an independent livestock and meat market analyst in Guelph, Ontario, in analyzing the report. The report stated inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1 was 65.4 million head, down 2 percent from Sept. 1, 2013, but up 6 percent from June.

With 20.7 million head, Iowa hog producers had the largest state inventory, which was the third-highest inventory on record. North Carolina and Minnesota had the second- and third-largest inventories with 8.4 million and 7.7 million, respectively.

In Illinois, the total inventory of all hogs and pigs on Sept. 1 was 4.55 million, up 6 percent from June 1 but down 1 percent from last year. In Indiana, the total hog and pig inventory on Sept. 1 was estimated at 3.55 million head, down 150,000 from last year.

Moreover, Michigan’s total hog and pig inventory on Sept. 1 was estimated at 1.01 million, down 40,000 from a year ago. Ohio’s inventory Sept. 1 was estimated at 2.06 million, down 30,000 from a year ago. Although Kentucky wasn’t included in the Sept. 26 report, according to Kentucky Department of Agriculture, the USDA estimate Sept. 25 was 412,000 head.

The report said the U.S. breeding inventory, at 5.92 million head, was up 2 percent from last year and 1 percent from the previous quarter, with the U.S. market hog inventory at 59.4 million, down 3 percent from last year but up 7 percent from last quarter.

The report also said the June-August 2014 pig crop, at 29.5 million, was down 1 percent from 2013, with sows farrowing during this period totaling 2.91 million, up 1 percent from 2013.

"The industry is making money, so one should expect farrowings to increase, and the report says that is happening," Plain said. "The really bearish numbers in this report are when you get to fall (farrowing) intentions, up 4 percent, and December 2014 to February 2015 farrowing intentions expected to be up 3.8 percent.

"Those are big increases, and unless we have pigs/litter numbers down due to health reasons and the porcine epidemic diarrhea virus, we could start to see some big increases in the pig crop in front of us – and ultimately, big increases in slaughter."

The report added sows farrowed during this quarter represented 50 percent of the breeding herd. Moreover, the average pigs saved per litter was 10.16 for the June-August period, compared to 10.33 last year, with pigs saved per litter by size of operation ranging from 8 for operations with 1-99 hogs and pigs, to 10.2 for operations with more than 5,000.

Bluntzer wondered what "that pigs/litter number (is) going to look like moving forward with the disease problems," especially combining both the pigs saved and breeding herd increases that could result in higher slaughter totals next year.

"With the increase in the total breeding herd, we start looking at slaughter figures up as much as 1 to 2 percent in the first quarter, up as much as 5 percent in the second quarter of next year and maybe up as much as 8 percent in the third quarter, and then trailing off to 6.5 percent in the fourth quarter, assuming that those pigs/litter numbers continue to creep higher."

Overall, the three agreed the impact of PEDv would be felt through the winter months. "The thing that hit me was the 4 percent increase in farrowing intentions," Grier said. "That’s got to be the one factor that we all scratch our heads about with regard to the impact of PEDv in terms of trying to pencil out a forecast."

10/8/2014