| Industry experts: Soybean exports help prop up price |
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Industry experts: Soybean exports help prop up price
By MATTHEW D. ERNST
Missouri Correspondent
ST. LOUIS, Mo. — Bunge sold the Thai Feed Import Group two panamax ships of U.S. soybean meal in November/December (each panamax holds about 60,000 metric tons, or 2.2 million bushels). The Thai group also ordered another 180,000 metric tons for delivery to Thailand next year, according to the U.S. Soybean Export Council (USSEC).
More exports can help boost bean prices. Higher-than-expected fall export activity combined with processors taking longer than expected to start crushing this year’s crop.
“Prices for domestic users have been buoyed, as a consequence,” said Mark Ash, USDA economist, in last week’s Oil Crops Outlook. For example, soybean meal prices in central Illinois rose from an average of $382 in October to $441 in November.
It is unclear how long exports will continue to support soy prices as this year’s bin-busting U.S. crop moves to processors. “Soybean meal prices could decline sharply once this early flush of export sales has dissipated,” said Ash.
Futures markets appear anticipating a price drop, with March 2015 Chicago Board of Trade soybean meal trading below $360. The USDA’s soybean meal season average price forecast for 2014/15 is $340-$380, well below the 2013/14 average of $490 per ton.
Aaron Smith, University of Tennessee extension grain marketing specialist, said price support from exports will continue. He said soybean export sales and commitments last week were 85 percent of the USDA estimated total exports for the 2014/15 marketing year, compared to a five-year average of 75 percent.
“Export sales will slow substantially in the New Year; however, it is likely that exports will exceed the current USDA marketing year estimates,” he explained.
China, which buys about 65 percent of the world’s soybeans, is the biggest market, purchasing more than a billion bushels of whole U.S. soybeans annually. Soybean exports to China increased 35 percent over 2013 levels, from January to October 2014. Export commitments and shipments to China were up again in November, according to the USSEC.
While whole soybeans are a big part of the export story, meal exports are rising, too. Canada, the Philippines and Mexico were the three largest importers of U.S. soy meal in 2013/14. This year, meal shipments are up to Asia and Europe.
“Europe has increased their imports of soybean meal from the U.S. to feed their livestock,” said Laura Foell, a farmer from Schaller, Iowa, and USSEC chair. Soybean meal shipments to Germany (up more than 100,000 metric tons since January) and France (up by 70,000) are leading the way, according to Census Bureau export data.
Thailand, which purchased two panamaxes from ADM and Bunge earlier this year, leads the increase in soybean meal exports to Asia. Thailand bought some 320,000 metric tons since January, compared to 68,000 for all of 2013. Exports to South Korea, down to just 12,000 metric tons in 2013, rose to 166,000 through October.
Soybean meal exports to Mexico, the largest export destination, are also up 24 percent through October, to 1.3 million metric tons. Total soybean meal shipments from the United States are up 3 percent, with a 5 percent bump in value, from January to October.
Strength in whole soybean and meal prices means lower oil prices. “Soybean oil prices are being undermined by prospects for record output in 2014/15, along with weakening support from the biodiesel market,” said Ash.
The USDA lowered its forecast range for the 2014/15 average soybean oil price by 2 cents, to 32-36 per pound. Soybean oil export value is down 11 percent this year, through October.
Soy exports for the year ending in September totaled approximately 2.3 billion bushels, about 62 percent of the 2013 harvest. That was a record 1.647 billion bushels of whole soybeans and another 645 million from soybean meal and oil. “These export numbers prove that U.S. soy is a highly valued product in the global marketplace,” said Dwain Ford, United Soybean Board (USB) International Opportunities Target Area Coordinator and soybean farmer from Kinmundy, Ill.
Whole soybean exports for the 2013/14 trade year ended Sept. 30 totaled 1.647 billion bushels. That was 46 percent of the 3.57 billion-bushel U.S. crop. Soybean meal and soybean oil exports accounted for another 16 percent of the U.S. crop, 645 million bushels. That meant exports totaled 62 percent of last season’s crop.
China bought more than a billion bushels of whole U.S. soybeans in 2013-14. Next most important was Mexico (124 million), followed by Indonesia (75 million).
Mexico bought soybean meal from 68 million bushels and oil from 36 million bushels of U.S. soybeans. After Mexico, Philippines imports the most U.S. soy meal, 59 million bushels for the year ended Sept. 30.
U.S. soybean meal also enjoys a good reputation there, according to Chris Nikkel, Bunge North America. “U.S. soybean meal in the Philippines trades at a premium over its competitor,” which is mainly meal from Argentina, he added. |
| 12/17/2014 |
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