URBANA, Ill. — A great deal of recent attention has been focused on the aging farmer “problem” in America. But the truth is the country really doesn’t have an aging farmer problem at all, according to Todd Kuethe of the University of Illinois Department of Agricultural and Consumer Economics (ACES).

While it’s true the mean age of principal farm operators in Illinois increased from 53.2 years in 1997 to 57.8 in 2012, data compiled by Kuethe reveals the aging farmer perception may be exaggerated. He notes the U.S. labor force is also aging, and offers comparisons of data from previous Censuses of Agriculture and the Bureau of Labor Statistics as proof that farm population aging mirrors that of the broader labor force.

Key to his findings: Though 31.6 percent of Illinois farms have a principal operator 65 years of age or older, “this age group represents a relatively smaller share of total farm acreage (24.6 percent) and farm income (21.5 percent),” he reported, while operators between ages 45-54 represent a similar share of farms (32.7 percent) but account for more acreage (37 percent) and income (38.6 percent). “The distribution of farm income (among age groups) is much closer to what one would expect of most small businesses” according to Kuethe.

An agricultural economist, he used for his study source the Census of Agriculture because “it captures the best snapshot of every farm business involved in farming,” he said. “If you look at Farm Management Association data, it (includes) commercially viable farms, but not some of the larger farms, because a lot of the larger farms are able to do their record keeping in-house.”

Census data reveals an aging farm population, with the largest share of the pie belonging to primary operators over the age of 65. A peek just beneath the surface of the data, however, reveals where the majority of farming activity occurs.

“For 65-plus, acreage and farm income is a much smaller share. Sixty-five-plus operates a lot of farms, but aren’t necessarily capturing the largest share of income,” he said, adding the 45-54 age group captures the majority of farm income in the state.

“I don’t think that’s uncommon for a skill-based sector. Where most people work, those are the bulk wage-earning years. As an economist, we like to follow where the money is. That’s where you find out where the relative strength of an economy is.”

Kuethe published his findings on the U of I farmdoc website under the title We May Not Have an Aging Farmer After All. His research piggybacks on a 2013 study by farmdoc colleague Carl Zulauf, of The Ohio State University, titled Putting the Age of U.S. Farmers in Perspective – also published on farmdoc.

“Carl found that the farm population is a little bit older than the general labor force, but they are aging at the same rate. So the idea of an aging population isn’t unique to farming,” Kuethe said.

“People worry that when the older folks leave agriculture, there is going to be no one to fill their shoes. I think if you look at the distribution of income you can see that those in their prime wage-earning years are already the principal operators of profitable farms.”

Not included in his published essay were his findings that older farmers are cash-renting more of their farmland to younger farmers while maintaining their designation as principal operator, and that many aging primary operators already have acreage and business transition plans in place.