NASHVILLE, Tenn. – The first planting intentions survey of 2015 indicated U.S. corn was bearish and soybeans were slightly bullish – with record plantings expected for a second year in a row, while all wheat and cotton acreage were forecast to drop significantly lower this growing season, according to the USDA.
"Each year, the agriculture industry eagerly awaits the USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report, which provides the first survey-based estimates of U.S. farmers’ planting intentions for the year," Debra Kenerson, NASS’ Tennessee State statistician, said of the report, which was released alongside the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report on March 31.
"The March Agricultural Survey provides the factual data that underpins these projections, making it one of the more important surveys we conduct each year," she added.
Conducted by the USDA in late February, the survey asked about 82,000 U.S. farmers to determine their plans for the upcoming planting season. The results of the report stated corn-planted acreage was down 2 percent from 2014; soybean acreage was up 1 percent, while all wheat acreage was down 3 percent, and all cotton acreage plummeting 13 percent.
Driven by expectations of lower prices and returns in 2015, the report said all corn-planted areas in 2015 are estimated at 89.2 million acres, down 2 percent from 2014. If realized, the report added, this would be the third consecutive year of an acreage decline, as well as the lowest planted acreage in the United States since 2010.
Doug Tenney, a grain marketing official with Leist Mercantile, Inc., in Circleville, Ohio, told Ohio Ag Net "the bearish corn numbers caught a lot of traders off-guard as many had expected that of corn, soybeans and wheat, corn had the most potential for rallies."
"Just before the report came out, corn was up 3 cents, soybeans were down 1 cent, wheat was down 5 cents," he said. "At 12:20 p.m. (on March 31), corn was down 13 cents, soybeans up 4 cents, and wheat was down 18 cents."
In addition, the report projected U.S. soybean-planted areas for 2015 at a record high 84.6 million acres, up 1 percent from last year. Compared with 2014, planted acreage intentions are up or unchanged in 21 of the 31 major producing states. In fact, according to the report, increases of 200,000 acres or more are anticipated in Arkansas, Iowa and Ohio. Compared with 2014, the largest declines are expected in Kansas and Nebraska. If realized, soybean acreage will be the largest on record in Kentucky, Minnesota, New York, Ohio, Pennsylvania, South Dakota and Wisconsin.
The report added all wheat planted areas for 2015 are estimated at 55.4 million acres, down 3 percent from 2014, with the 2015 winter wheat-planted area, at 40.8 million acres, down 4 percent from last year, but up less than 1 percent from the previous estimate. Of this total, about 29.6 million acres are hard red winter wheat, 7.75 million acres are soft red winter, and 3.43 million acres are white winter, with area planted to other spring wheat for 2015 estimated at 13 million acres, down slightly from 2014, the report indicated. Of this total, about 12.1 million acres are hard red spring wheat, with the intended durum-planted area for 2015 estimated at 1.65 million acres, up 18 percent from 2014, the report added.
Moreover, the USDA said all cotton-planted areas for 2015 are estimated at 9.55 million acres, 13 percent below last year, with Upland areas estimated at 9.4 million acres, down 13 percent from 2014. American Pima area is estimated at 150,000 acres, down 22 percent from 2014, the report added.
On March 20, Doane Advisory Services released its 2015 Planting Intentions Survey showing a continuation of recent trends toward more soybeans and less corn acreage, similar to USDA estimates.
While some forecasts show significant year-over-year declines in total crop acreage planted to the principle crops for 2015, Doane said it’s survey results suggest otherwise. Expected declines for corn, cotton, and winter wheat acreage will be offset with more acres of sorghum, barley, durum wheat, soybeans, sunflower, canola and hay, the Doane survey read.
According to the USDA’s Quarterly Grain Stocks Report, U.S. corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 7.74 billion bushels, up 11 percent from last March. Of the total stocks, 4.38 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 13 percent from a year earlier, with off-farm stocks, at 3.36 billion bushels, up 7 percent from a year ago, the report read.
In addition, U.S. soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.33 billion bushels, up 34 percent from March 1, 2014. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 609 million bushels, up 60 percent from a year ago, with off-farm stocks, at 725 million bushels, up 18 percent from last March.
The report also said all wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.12 billion bushels, up 6 percent from a year ago. On-farm stocks are estimated at 279 million bushels, up 17 percent from last March, with off-farm stocks, at 846 million bushels, up 3 percent from a year ago.
But Tenney said both corn and soybean stocks were expected to come out higher than the trade had anticipated.
"Corn stocks could be higher due to the 2014 production being better than earlier reported," he said. "In addition, there is some thinking that corn fed to livestock was below earlier projections.
"The hog and pig report had less animals than expected, helping to contribute to the reduced feeding number," he added. But Tenney said for much of the country, "winter temperatures were below- to much-below normal."
To view these reports and more, visit www.nass.usda.gov
