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Ron Plain: Relative shortage of turkey driving demand for stored ham  
 
 
By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook
 
Hog producers continue to supply a lot of pork to the market. Commercial pork production in June came in 15.1 percent above the year-ago level and caused production for the first half of the year to surpass the 2014 number by 7.1 percent. This is in spite of dressed hog weights that have been running 2-3 pounds lighter than last year for the past three months.
A lot of the additional production volume is ending up in storage. Frozen pork stocks at the end of June were at the highest level ever for that month, 17.6 percent higher than 2014. Ham inventories were particularly burdensome, as users begin preparing for holiday demand later this year. Perhaps the relative shortage of turkey availability is driving higher demand for stored ham supplies. Chicken production also continues well above last year’s level. Demand for meat and pork will need to continue strong to keep hog prices reasonable for producer profitability.
Corn conditions remained at 69 percent good/excellent in last week’s survey. Though certain areas of the country are struggling with too much moisture, the nation as a whole appears on pace to produce a solid corn crop this year, which should keep feed costs at tolerable levels for livestock producers.
Cash hog prices were mixed for the week. The average negotiated carcass price for plant delivered hogs Thursday, July 23, was $74.27 per cwt, down $1.39 against the previous week. The national average negotiated carcass price for direct delivered hogs on the morning report Friday was $73.36 per cwt. This was $1.20 per cwt lower than a week earlier and $49.28 lower than a year ago. However, the morning price quote July 24 for Iowa-Minnesota was $0.09 per cwt higher than the previous week at $74.66 per cwt. The Western Corn Belt price advanced a penny on the week to $74.58 per cwt. There was no quote for the Eastern Corn Belt. Peoria had a top price Friday, July 24, of $49 per cwt, with Zumbrota at $51 per cwt. Interior Missouri live hogs had a top of $53.50 per cwt.
The pork cutout value moved $3.82 higher for the week, with the morning’s cutout July 24 at $85.49 per cwt FOB the plants. All of the primals with the exception of ribs were up for the week, with bellies advancing the most at 11.1 percent. Friday’s value was still $47.38 lower than a year ago. That morning’s national negotiated hog price equaled 85.8 percent of the cutout value, a drop of 5.5 percent versus the prior week.
Hog slaughter for last week came in at 2.107 million head, up 13.1 percent from the same week last year. Year to date slaughter is 7.3 percent above 2014. The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 277.3 pounds, a large drop of 2.0 pounds from the week before and 7.5 pounds lower than the same week last year.
The August lean hog contract ended the week at $77.62 per cwt, up $1.95 per cwt from the previous Friday. October closed at $64.07, up 62 cents. The December lean hog futures contract gained 85 cents to $61.52 per cwt, and February hogs finished at $67.72 per cwt.
September corn closed July 24 at $3.925 per bushel, down nearly 28 cents from the previous Friday. December closed at $4.0275.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain may write to him in care of this publication.
7/29/2015