By DAVE BLOWER JR.

INDIANAPOLIS, Ind. — The USDA’s corn and soybean forecasts released on Aug. 12 have earned mixed reviews regionally.

The USDA predicts the 2015 corn crop will be 13.7 billion bushels, which is only 4 percent less than last year’s record production. Expected yields are 168.8 bushels per acre, or 2.2 fewer than 2014. The USDA reports this is the third-largest U.S. production, and its second-highest yield.

"If you’re looking at these numbers in Indiana, you don’t believe them," said Greg Matli, Indiana state statistician for the USDA’s National Ag-ricultural Sta-tistics Service (NASS) who analyzed the numbers duri-ng a press conference at the Indiana State Fair last week. "But there are 10 states that will have record yields this year for corn."

Among those 10 record-producing states include Iowa (2.434 billion bushels total and 183 bushels per acre yield); Nebraska (1.644 billion total, 187 yield); and Minnesota (1.426 billion total, 184 yield).

In Indiana, Matli said 867.4 million bushels of corn are expected to be harvested at an average yield of 158 bushels – the yield is 30 lower than 2014’s record of 188. Last year, Indiana’s total production was 1.085 billion bushels. Furthermore, only 47 percent of this year’s crop in Indiana is rated good to excellent.

Matli said Indiana received record rainfall in June (9.03 inches), and heavy rain and strong winds continued periodically through mid-July. However, the result on the state’s crops was spotty, said Purdue University extension corn specialist Bob Nielsen.

"This weather damage is not uniformly distributed throughout the state," he added. "There are some out there that have their best-looking crop ever, and there are others who’ve lost everything. And, of course, there’s everything in between."

He was hopeful, however, that yields may be better than predicted. "We’ve got a long way to go to bring this crop in," Nielsen said. "The crop statewide should mature in a fairly normal time frame."

He noted conditions are high for ear rot, and he has concerns that fields have plants maturing at widely different rates. "In many fields, there’s a two- to three-week difference in the progress of the crop. That is going to create challenges. It could be a hard crop to dry this year."

Illinois’ yield is also expected to drop from 200 bushels per acre in 2014 to 172 this year. The state’s total production is forecasted to dip from 2.35 billion last year to 2.004 billion in 2015. NASS forecasts Indiana’s neighboring states will harvest a smaller-sized crop than 2014.

•The Ohio forecast is 547.7 million bushels, which is lower than last year’s 610.7 million

•The Michigan forecast is 351.5 million bushels, lower than its 2014 total of 355.8 million

•The Kentucky forecast is 221 million bushels, lower than 2014’s total of 225.9 million

The story is similar, but not as drastic for Hoosier soybean producers, reported Purdue extension soybean specialist Shaun Casteel.

"Soybeans can make up a lot of ground this season," he said of Indiana’s crop. "Soybeans usually grow and mature around (Indiana) State Fair time."

Nationally, Matli said, soybean production is forecast at 3.92 billion bushels, down 1 percent from 2014. Across the country, the yield is expected to be 46.9 bushels per acre, which is also down 1 percent from a year ago.

The NASS forecast predicts Indiana will harvest 278.8 million bushels, which is down from 307.4 million in 2014. Part of that is because of the expected yield drop of 56 bushels per acre last year to 49 in 2015.

"The next 30 to 45 days will determine the yield in Indiana," Casteel advised. "Right now we’re asking for those weekly 1-inch rains that will help the plants."

Many growers, he said, have complained about small soybean plants this year. Casteel advised them not to worry: "You don’t have to have tall plants to have tall yields. The height is not there, but the leaves are there."

USDA expects the Illinois and Ohio soybean crops to be slightly smaller than 2014, but higher production should come from Michigan and Kentucky.

•Illinois is expected to produce 534.2 million bushels at 53 bushels per acre, compared to 547.7 million and 56 in 2014, respectively

•The estimates for Ohio are 239.5 million, with a yield of 48 this year versus 254.1 million and 52.5 in 2014

•In Michigan, 96.1 million bushels at a yield of 46 is predicted, as opposed to 92 million and 43 in 2014

•For Kentucky, 92 million with a yield of 50 is expected, while 2014 brought 84 million at a yield of 48 bushels per acre

Purdue extension agricultural economist Chris Hurt said the conditions may look familiar to many growers.

"This could be the equivalent to the era of $2 (per bushel) corn – prior to 2006," he said. "We’re going to have areas of the state where there are going to be concerns financially for our farm fam-ilies.

"This is an above-average crop, nationally."

He reported as of 2014, about 80 percent of Indiana’s corn and soybean acres are covered by crop insurance; how-ever, he said most non-farmers don’t understand exactly how crop insurance works.

"This is how I explain it to people," Hurt said. "Let’s say you have insurance on a $100,000 house, and you have a total loss from a fire. This insurance would pay you $75,000 to replace the house. That is what crop insurance is designed to do."