WEST DES MOINES, Iowa — A newly released study by the Iowa Farm Bureau Federation (IFBF) found the recent outbreak of highly-pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has cost the nation’s top egg-producing state nearly 8,500 jobs and close to $427 million in lost income and tax revenue in its wake.

“Recovery from this outbreak, which devastated Iowa egg and poultry farms, will not be swift,” said Dave Miller, IFBF economist and director of research and commodity services. “Egg prices are likely to peak out this summer, but the ‘elevated’ price for eggs is likely to linger for a minimum of 12 months and could last for two to three years.”

He added “the ripple effects of the lost jobs and revenue could last for up to three years, which will also impact egg and poultry prices, since it takes months to get the birds and the staff back in place.

“It’s really astounding that we could lose half of our poultry flock in a couple of months,” he said.

Commissioned by the IFBF and conducted by Decision Innovation Solutions (DIS) in Urbandale, Iowa, the study said the state’s forced depopulation of 34 million birds on 77 farms “won’t just raise the price for eggs and poultry for up to the next three years; it also is costing the nation’s largest egg-producing state nearly 8,500 jobs, some of which, may never be replaced.”

“This has been a devastating disease for our states, farmers and poultry industry,” Iowa Agriculture Secretary Bill Northey commented. “To lose more than 30 million birds has had a broad impact all across our state’s economy. Our poultry farmers are very resilient and fortunately, we are in the recovery process and making progress.”

The study said HPAI has left “many producers struggling to cover fixed costs and will also have lasting effects as it will take significant time to repopulate barns and get them back into full production.

“In addition to the lost revenue to egg and turkey producers, HPAI also has many other adverse consequences on economic activity up- and downstream, such as lost business for feed suppliers, veterinarians, truck transportation, financial institutions and decreases in government tax revenues.”

According to the study, since the beginning of 2015, HPAI has resulted in the loss of more than 30 million layers and pullets and 1.5 million turkeys in Iowa from infection or depopulation because of exposure to the deadly bird virus. Nationally, HPAI has resulted in the loss of more than 38 million layers and pullets from infection or depopulation due to exposure, and the loss of nearly 7.8 million turkeys.

The study stated layer operations affected by HPAI across the United States also impacted Minnesota, Nebraska, Wisconsin and South Dakota, and “represent a significant percentage of pre-outbreak inventories,” particularly for Iowa (52 percent) and Minnesota (nearly 40 percent).

Moreover, turkey operations in Arkansas, California, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin have seen losses, with the most significant losses in Iowa (15 percent), South Dakota (12 percent) and Minnesota (10 percent), all of which lost their entire pre-outbreak inventories.

One challenge as the industry moves forward is how long affected barns will be empty before being cleared to repopulate, the study said.

Further challenges arise when repopulating due to the need for staggered ages in layers – something not a consideration for turkey producers, which means “egg producers won’t choose to repopulate all farms with pullets of the same age even if obtaining sufficient numbers of pullets at once were possible. Significant loss of pullets (nearly 6 million) to HPAI also contributes to the repopulation dilemma,” the study added.

While some farms – due to a temporary positive change in egg production economics – may opt to extend egg production of unaffected layers through molting and other means, repopulation will be further compounded by expectations of high demand for pullets once many affected farms are cleared to once again begin producing eggs, the study added.

That’s why, Miller said, the recent decrease in layers and egg production has led to reduced egg supplies and higher prices. In addition, many of the egg farm workers who lost their jobs are moving away to seek employment in other towns or other industries, which means replacing the labor pool won’t be easy, he said.

“As for the future risk, the entire industry is reviewing all of their biosecurity protocols, but since about 16 percent of all wild waterfowl are carriers of avian influenza, the potential for exposure is difficult to eliminate,” he said.

“Farms are working to minimize contact of their birds with wild birds, but it is very difficult to keep out sparrows, starlings and everything that migrates over these barns.”

As far as trade, because of the recent bird flu outbreak, a report from the USA Poultry & Egg Export Council said “the impact of lost exports alone reached nearly $390 million during the first half of 2015.”

On Aug. 15, Canada banned entry of all raw poultry products exported from 24 counties in Iowa (between April 13- July 28), and 33 counties in Minnesota (between March 28-July 28), according to the USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service. On Aug. 21, the Canadian Food Inspection Agency, however, said Indiana is now free of HPAI, and “imports from this state are now permitted.”

In May, total bans had already been imposed by China, South Korea and Angola, whose markets were valued at nearly $700 million last year, according to Reuters.

As of Aug. 19, Hong Kong has lifted restrictions on 10 previously banned counties in Arkansas, Washington, Oregon and California. Japan and Singapore have also lifted its bans on poultry exported from the United States; however, Mexico, the industry’s largest export market, has yet to remove its restrictions.