By RON PLAIN
Hog Outlook
The USDA Hogs & Pigs report Friday, Sept. 25, said there were 3.9 percent more marketing hogs in the U.S. on Sept. 1 than a year ago. The average of pre-release trade forecasts also was for the market hog inventory to be up 3.9 percent. USDA put the breeding herd at 101.1 percent of a year earlier. The average trade prediction was for 100.3 percent.
The September survey said producers farrowed 1.6 percent fewer sows this summer than last. USDA said producer farrowing intentions for September-November are for 2.5 percent fewer sows to farrow than last fall, and December-February farrowings are expected to be down 0.7 percent compared to last winter.
Pigs per litter during June-August was up 2.3 percent, and the summer pig crop was up 0.6 percent compared to a year ago.
USDA released its monthly Cold Storage report last week, and the numbers were not good. There were 656 million pounds of pork in cold storage at the end of August. That was 20.7 percent more than a year ago and 3.6 percent more than a month earlier. The amount of beef and chicken in cold storage also was up. The total of frozen pork, beef, chicken and turkey at the end of August was 2.385 billion pounds, up 18.6 percent from a year ago and the most for any month since October 2002.
The national negotiated barrow and gilt price on the morning report Friday, Sept. 25, was $66.73 per cwt., up $1.09 from the previous Friday morning. The Western Corn Belt averaged $68.84 per cwt. on Sept. 25. There were no negotiated price quotes that morning for the Eastern Corn Belt or for Iowa-Minnesota.
Peoria had a top live price Sept. 25 of $43 per cwt., down $1 from the previous Friday. The top price Friday for interior Missouri live hogs was $46 per cwt., unchanged from the previous Friday.
The pork cutout value Friday morning, Sept. 25, was $84.29 per cwt. FOB the plants. That is up 76 cents from the week before, but down $35.88 from a year ago. Packer margins continue to be very good. The morning national negotiated hog price Friday was only 79.2 percent of the cutout value.
Last week’s hog slaughter totaled 2.276 million head, down 0.1 percent from the previous week, but up 8.9 percent from the same week last year.
The average live slaughter weight of barrows and gilts in Iowa-Minnesota last week was 278.9 pounds, down 1.7 pounds from a week earlier and down 4.0 pounds from a year ago. This was the 26th consecutive week with weights lighter than last year.
It was a positive week for hog futures. The October lean hog futures contract settled Friday, Sept. 25, at $71.875 per cwt., up 82.5 cents for the week. December hog futures ended the week at $65.775 per cwt., up $1.625 from the week before. February hogs gained 57.5 cents last week to close at $68.95 per cwt. The April contract ended the week at $71.85 per cwt.
The December corn futures contract gained 11.75 cents last week to close at $3.89 per bushel.
The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the authors and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Ron Plain and Scott Brown may write to them in care of this publication.
