LEXINGTON, Ky. — Tobacco farmers in the Bluegrass State are seeing major declines in their yields thanks to some irregular weather earlier this year.

An abundance of summer rains, followed by intense heat, made for poor growing conditions and has left some farmers wanting. “Some individuals lost their whole crop,” said Pat Raines, president of the Burley Tobacco Growers Cooperative Assoc. “There was just too much water.”

According to the National Weather Service, Kentucky received as much as 8-20 inches of rain above average this year. A bulk of the rain fell in the time period just after most crops were set, from late June to the middle of July.

On July 20, USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service reported tobacco conditions in Kentucky were declining due to abundant precipitation and wind damage, with only 58 percent rated as good to excellent condition. Only a week prior, NASS had rated 67 percent in that category.

“I believe most farms will see a decrease of 10 to 25 percent,” said Raines. “Yields were originally predicted to be 160 million (pounds, nationally), but will end up being more like 130 million. We didn’t see a whole lot of diseases in the region; there wasn’t a whole lot of blank shank in Kentucky. The tobacco got planted at a good time, but we just saw too much water.”

Curing has also been a challenge, as farmers are not seeing the color they would like to have in their leaves. A majority of the producers are getting a lighter leaf than that for which tobacco companies like to pay. Some see this as a correction of the market, however: “We went into the growing season with an oversupply of tobacco. This downturn will get supply and demand back in balance,” said Dr. Will Snell, tobacco economics specialist at the University of Kentucky (UK) College of Agriculture, Food and Environment.

“We have seen demand drop due to cigarette consumption dropping, the value of the dollar decreasing and there is just a surplus in current stocks. We will probably see a downward pressure of a normal quality crop this year drop to approximately $1.90 to $2 an acre. I expect individual yields to be down about 250 pounds per acre overall.”

This correction comes as demand for domestic burley decreases worldwide due to an increase in the popularity of non-combustibles, such as e-cigarettes and vaporizers. The increase in the value of the dollar is making U.S. tobacco less attractive in the international marketplace, further driving down demand.

Even without the rain, Snell had expected 2015 to be a challenging year for burley growers, as contract volumes were reduced from 2014. “Unlike the days of the former federal tobacco program when quota changes were uniform across all growers, contract volume changes for 2015 will vary considerably across U.S. burley growers,” he stated in the March 25 edition of the UKAg Economic and Policy Update newsletter.

“In reality, 2015 contract volume changes range from small increases for a few growers, to 100 percent reduction for other growers. I could anticipate the call for a 30 to 40 percent or greater reduction in 2015 U.S. burley acres.”

Raines said producers remain positive. “That’s just farming,” he concluded. “You have bad years, but that’s how it goes.”

Kentucky grows 75 percent of U.S. burley tobacco.