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Views and Opinions: Active precipitation pattern precedes cold Thanksgiving
 

 

An active pattern during the next 10 days will allow no more than 2-3 days of dry weather in-between weather systems. Temperatures near normal mean we do not expect groundbreaking drying with those periods, either.

That being said, only one of the next four weather events looks to promote excessive rain, and we have no snow coming. The map on this page shows cumulative rain totals from the next three of those systems for the coming 10 days.

We kick off our forecast this time around with a minor front moving across the region here at midweek. Moisture crosses the Eastern Corn Belt on Nov. 15 bringing one-tenth to one-half of an inch across 80 percent of the region through sunset. These rain systems do not look overly intense, and will be similar to recent rain we have seen back into last weekend and before.

We are back to dry weather with some sunshine for Nov. 16.

A stronger frontal complex arrives for the start of the weekend. Clouds will build through Friday, Nov. 17 across western and southern parts of the region, and rain could start to overspread the region late Friday afternoon and Friday evening. They will be light at first, with only a few hundredths to a tenth or two for Friday up to midnight. But much heavier rainstorms come as the low pressure center comes close Friday night through the first half of Saturday.

That could actually trigger some stronger thunderstorms for Saturday, and will be where the heaviest rain comes. The best thunderstorm threats come over northern and central parts of Illinois and northern Indiana into lower Michigan. Even without thunderstorms, gusty winds will develop and can be a problem.

From sunset Friday night through midnight Nov. 18, we can expect quarter-inch to 1 inch over 95 percent of the region. Even the final 5 percent will see rain, but just may not quite make it to the lower quarter-inch threshold. This will be a significant rain event and will lead to likely field work delays all the way through the next rain event.

We go dry for Sunday and Monday, although Sunday we may be stuck with some lingering clouds over a large part of the region. Colder air comes in behind that system on strong northwest winds, and the coldest day will be Nov. 19. Gusty winds mentioned above will average at least 15-30 mph for both Saturday (with the rains) and Sunday. Winds should subside for Nov. 20.

On Nov. 21, another fast-moving low pressure system tracks across our area, coming in from the southwest. This will bring five-hundreds to a half-inch of rain to 70 percent of the Eastern Corn Belt. We do not expect enough drying for field work ahead of this event. So this rain will just add to the delays as we move toward Thanksgiving. We should be dry for Nov. 22, the day before Thanksgiving.

For the rest of our 10-day forecast, we look to start it off dry for Thanksgiving Day, itself. However the cause for this dryness on Thanksgiving Day will be a strong upper level, Canadian high pressure system diving into the Eastern United States, which means we can see temperatures below normal with a cold shot for Thanksgiving Day.

During the past few days, one particular model has really ramped up talk of this cold shot; however, we are going to be a little more conservative in our view of the cold blast. We are looking for below normal temperatures, but the coldest air will be farther east, over the Mid-Atlantic states and New England.

Thanksgiving will by no means be warm here, but excessive cold hype should be viewed as overdone. We will continue to watch the evolution of the high and its track to the south and east. On the backside of the high we can see a minor threat of precipitation for late on Nov. 24 into Nov. 25.

Moisture totals do not look impressive, but we will keep an eye out for a few hundredths to a tenth or two over about 60 percent of the region.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

 

THE MAP SHOWS cumulative rain totals from the next three of those systems for the coming 10 days.

11/17/2017