Temperature swings, dry weather to end November

The week so far has already been a bit of a roller coaster ride when it comes to our high temperatures. That ride does not look to end soon, but the ups and downs are going to be mostly precipitation free, oddly enough. A cold front moved early on Nov. 22, and we are seeing strong northwest winds coming in behind that front.

Lingering sprinkles and light snow will be in parts of Ohio, but it will move away quickly. The front is mostly dry, triggering just the wind shift. However, that change in flow to strong out of the northwest means we are seeing a fairly dramatic pull back in temperatures, which will lead to a colder feel through Thanksgiving Day.

We should see at least some sunshine through the cold period, and a continuation of our dry week. Thanksgiving travel will not see any problems.

The roller coaster decides to go back up hill from late Nov. 23 through the balance of the week and weekend. Temperatures climb for Nov. 24 with strong southwest winds returning to the region. We should see above normal highs for Nov. 24-25 all across the Eastern Corn Belt, and winds can be strong out of the southwest.

Again, we are not complaining, but it is a little bit different to go through another round of significant temperature changes with no precipitation.

A frontal passage is still on our minds for Nov. 26. However, moisture availability does not look to be as impressive this morning. In fact, this front for Sunday may end up looking more like the front from earlier in the week – one that had just a wind shift, albeit a cold one, and no significant moisture to work with. At this time, we will leave a chance for minor spits and sprinkles, particularly farther east in Ohio, but we honestly think this could pass with no precipitation in many areas.

We want Mother Nature to prove there is more with the system before getting too excited. If we miss out on action Sunday, we will be looking at a total dry window of nearly 10 days, going back to the beginning of this week, before our next system around Nov. 29. Either way, with or without moisture to finish this weekend, we go colder again Nov. 26-27.

On Wednesday, Nov. 29, we should see nice moisture moving in from the west. Temperatures are going to be near normal, and should be warm enough to bring mostly rain. We may see a bit of wet snow early in the morning in north central and northeast Indiana along with northwest Ohio, if moisture arrives while we are still near our morning lows. However, we really are looking for two-tenths to six-tenths of an inch of rain over 80 percent of the Eastern Corn Belt.

This front should move through relatively quickly. The map on this page shows a snapshot of potential action around midday on Nov. 29.

For the balance of our forecast window, we look to get more active next month. We have a strong storm complex still on the way for early December – looking for an arrival late Dec. 1 and lingering through Dec. 3. This system has moisture potential of a quarter-inch to 1 inch with coverage at 100 percent of Indiana. Warm air should be in for most of the event, but we won’t rule out action ending as wet snow, because cold air looks formidable on the backside of the front.

We follow that with a dry, upper-level high pressure dome holding over Indiana through Dec. 6, keeping cold air in over the region. However, looking off to the west, there is a very strong low looking to come in off the Pacific and move across California early in the month. This low is hinting at consolidation near the four corners region, which is a key area to watch for strong winter storm development.

We, at least, look for that system to bring significant moisture to the plains and the Missouri Valley. But if it moves the way we see right now, it will be headed toward us as well, and signals a move back to a very active pattern for December.

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.