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Views and opinions: Ample moisture results from an unsettled pattern
 

We started off the week with a lot of water in parts of the region, after a slow-moving frontal boundary brought our first significant rains in a while to the Eastern Corn Belt. Even still, there were some areas nationwide that missed out on the rains, like Missouri.

We saw things start to settle down somewhat Tuesday, and overall we will see a couple more days of limited precipitation action from mid-week on, but in general, the pattern overall remains somewhat unsettled here. We think a strong high-pressure dome will try to park over the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast states the rest of this week.

Moisture will try to circulate around the bottom and backside of the high in clockwise fashion. This will keep plenty of moisture in over the Deep South and Tennessee Valley, augmented by some flow up off of the Gulf of Mexico. This will also keep a chance of scattered, hit-and-miss showers in over the state through most of the rest of the week.

We are not talking about significant rains like this past weekend, but more minor, pop-up action, from time to time. We do think we are looking at the slightly drier window that opened Tuesday holding through a good chunk of Wednesday, but even there, conditions will be “right” enough to trigger a bit of moisture here and there.

Better rain chances are in for the second half of the week and weekend. With the damp feel and ample moisture, we can say that this week will not be one that features good drydown. In fact, drying will be tough and humidity levels high. As long as temps stay near normal (and they should – perhaps even a bit below normal in the near term), this forecast is one that is positive for crop growth and development for anything in the ground.

For those who still have some acres to put in, this is not a forecast you are happy with. Forage and hay work this week will also be tough. Looking at the rest of the week, we can see 70 percent of the region picking up another 0.25 to 0.75 inch. Coverage may be not better than 30-40 percent on any of the next few individual days, but combined we get to that 70 percent number.

Scattered showers develop Saturday with 0.25- to 0.75-inch rain potential over 60 percent of the area as a minor front moves through. Lingering clouds and scattered moisture is in for Sunday, too, although probably not amounting to more than few hundredths. Temps remain near normal for the weekend.

Next week starts with no significant moisture or frontal action, but clouds are slow to leave. This setup looks similar to the second half of this week, where there is no significant synoptic event arriving, but we just are mired in what seems like a soupy mess. We will keep Monday and Tuesday dry for now, but look for scattered showers next Wednesday.

In the extended period, we have a front for late June 21 into June 22 that brings 0.25 to 1 inch of rain, and another front around June 26 that can bring equal rains. Both will end up with coverage around 80 percent.

Temps the next 10 days will be near normal. We can trend slightly below in the short term, and perhaps a bit above in the extended period.

 

Ryan Martin is Chief Meteorologist for Hoosier Ag Today, a licensed Commodity Trader and the Farmer Origination Specialist for Louis Dreyfus Company’s Claypool Indiana Soybean Crush Plant. The views and opinions expressed in the column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World.

6/14/2018