Increased output in milk per cow pushed January milk production above January 2018, according to preliminary data in another one of the delayed USDA reports, the January Milk Production report. Output in the top 23 producing states totaled 17.5 billion pounds, up a bearish 1.3 percent from 2018, with the 50-state total, at 18.6 billion pounds, up 0.9 percent. January 2016 was the last time the 50 state total fell below that of the previous year.

Finalized data put total 2018 milk output at 218 billion pounds, up 1.0 percent from 2017. The USDA reported that annual U.S. milk output has increased 15.0 percent from 2009. Cow numbers totaled 9.4 million head, down 0.1 percent from 2017 but they have increased 2.1 percent from 2009. Output per cow averaged 23,149 pounds in 2018, up 235 pounds from 2017, an average that has increased 12.6 percent since 2009, according to the USDA.

The Agriculture Department again lowered its 2019 milk production estimate in the latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, blaming smaller expected dairy cow numbers.

2019 production and marketings were estimated at 219.7 and 218.8 billion pounds respectively, down 400 million pounds on output and down 300 million on marketings. If realized, 2019 production would still be up 2.2 billion pounds or 1.0 percent from 2018.

The fat basis export forecast was reduced on slower expected sales of butterfat due to increased global competition. Skim-solids basis exports were lowered on expected strong competition in international skim milk powder markets and slower expected demand for whey products. The fat basis import forecast was lowered slightly while the skim-solids basis import forecast was unchanged.

Annual product price forecasts for cheese, butter, nonfat dry milk were raised from the previous month, but the whey price forecast was reduced slightly.

Dairy traders had a lot to assimilate this week and by Friday had taken CME block Cheddar to a $1.56 per pound close on the week, 2 1/2-cents higher than the previous week but 2 1/2-cents below a year ago. The Cheddar barrels finished at $1.4925, up 12 3/4-cents on the week, highest since Sept. 10, 2018, 6 3/4-cents below a year ago, but pulled the spread down to 6 3/4-cents. There were 15 cars of block sold on the week at the CME and 27 of barrel.

Midwestern cheesemakers continue to report seasonally quiet orders, according to Dairy Market News, and some expect the lull to continue through the month. Contacts relay that their milk suppliers, smaller dairy farms, experienced barn collapses due to excess snow-builds. Cows on those farms were being relocated but milk remains available and continues 50 cents to $2 under Class.

A number of local cheesemakers say their inventories are manageable, as they have maintained limited production schedules however, some report recent upticks regarding production and expect it to continue forward as demand will pick up in the early spring. Cheese market tones are “steady to bullish.”

Western cheese production is active as parts of the region have increasing milk output. Inventories are heavy and processors want to keep them in check.

Demand is strong from domestic retail outlets and a few export channels.

In politics; the National Milk Producers Federation praised legislation that has been introduced by Senators Tammy Baldwin (D-WI) and Jim Risch (R-ID) in the Senate and Representatives Peter Welch (D-VT) and Mike Simpson (R-ID) in the House.

The legislation “further prods the FDA toward increasingly necessary action as plant-based imitators of milk, cheese, butter and other products brazenly flout FDA rules restricting the use of dairy terms on non-dairy products,” according to a NMPF press release.

The ‘Dairy Pride Act’ is “another means toward a crucial end for consumers: the end of mislabeled non-dairy products as ‘milks’ in the marketplace,” says NMPF.

“While NMPF continues to press the agency to strengthen its own enforcement, substantial support for dairy in Congress only underscores the urgency for the FDA to act,” charged NMPF president and CEO Jim Mulhern.

The views and opinions expressed in this column are those of the author and not necessarily those of Farm World. Readers with questions or comments for Lee Mielke may write to him in care of this publication.