Last year’s milk production growth has already carried over into 2021, according to Sarina Sharp, market analyst for the Milk Producers Council.

“According to the USDA’s Milk Production Report, released Feb. 23, national milk production increased by 1.6 percent in January, the smallest year-over-year increase seen since June 2020,” she said. 

Sharp said most of the growth was driven by an expanding national dairy herd, with producers adding an estimated 8,000 head of cows between last December and this January. 

“But improved productivity played a hand in the increase as well, with yields increasing by 0.6 percent year over year, equivalent to an additional 13 pounds of milk per cow,” she said.

“The 1.6-percent increase was less than most analyst predictions,” she added. “Surprisingly weak production in key dairy states like California and Idaho – which saw milk production decrease for the first time since 2017 – weighed on the national figure.” 

The report said U.S. milk production in the 24 major states during January totaled 18.3 billion pounds, up 1.8 percent from January 2020. December revised production, at 18 billion pounds, was up 2.6 percent from December 2019. The December revision represented a decrease of 74 million pounds, or 0.4 percent from last month’s preliminary production estimate.  

Production per cow in the 24 major states averaged 2,049 pounds for January, 15 pounds above January 2020, the report said. The number of milk cows on farms in the 24 major states was 8.93 million head, 92,000 head more than January 2020, and 6,000 head more than December 2020. 

The annual production of milk for the United States during 2020 was 223 billion pounds, 2.2 percent above 2019, the report said. Revisions to 2019 production increased the annual total 59 million pounds. Revised 2020 production was up 165 million pounds from last month’s publication. Annual total milk production has increased 13.7 percent from 2011.  

In addition, U.S. production per cow averaged 23,777 pounds for 2020, 382 pounds above 2019, the report said. The average annual rate of milk production per cow has increased 11.5 percent from 2011. 

The report said the average number of milk cows on U.S. farms during 2020 was 9.39 million head, up 0.5 percent from 2019. The average number of milk cows was revised, up 6,000 head for 2020. The average annual number of milk cows has increased 2.1 percent from 2011. 

The 24 states for which the USDA reports milk production are: Arizona, California, Colorado, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, Vermont, Virginia, Washington, and Wisconsin.

In Indiana, dairy herds produced 382 million pounds of milk during January, up 10.1 percent from a year ago. Production per cow averaged 1,990 pounds for January, 20 pounds above January 2020. The dairy herd was estimated at 192,000 head for December, up 16,000 head from a year earlier.

In Illinois, dairy herds produced 157 million pounds of milk during January, up 2.6 percent from a year ago. Production per cow averaged 1,870 pounds for January, which stayed the same from January 2020. The dairy herd was estimated at 84,000 head for December, up 2,000 head from a year earlier.

In Iowa, milk production during January 2021 totaled 468 million pounds, up 3 percent from the previous January. The average number of milk cows during January, at 222,000 head, was 2,000 more than last month, and 7,000 more than January 2020. Monthly production per cow averaged 2,110 pounds, up 5 pounds from last January.

In Michigan, milk production during January 2021 totaled 1,016 million pounds, up 4.3 percent from the previous January. The average number of milk cows during January, at 440,000 head, up 13,000 January 2020. Monthly production per cow averaged 2,310 pounds, up 30 pounds from last January.

In Ohio, milk production during January 2021 totaled 486 million pounds, up 3.6 percent from the previous January. The average number of milk cows during January, at 259,000 head, up 6,000 January 2020. Monthly production per cow averaged 1,875 pounds, up 20 pounds from last January.

Sharp said the report made some important revisions, both to national and state-level data. 

“In particular, the 3.2 percent increase in California’s December milk production published earlier was reversed to a 0.5 percent decline,” she said.

“Though the previous week’s horrific weather has largely become a memory, its impact on the dairy sector has not,” she added. “Many plants are keeping busy schedules as they attempt to compensate for the previous week’s closures.” 

Meanwhile, Sharp said, “displaced spot loads of milk and cream are still moving around the country searching for homes.” 

“Especially in Texas, the storm’s impact on milk production, and particularly yields, has yet to be fully realized,” she said. “Nevertheless, milk for manufacturing remains abundant in most areas. 

“Midwest spot milk could be obtained (in early March), with discounts as large as $7 per hundredweight from Class III prices, larger discounts than what were available the week prior,” she added.

She said cheese manufacturers continue to turn out product at “a healthy clip and are playing a key role in absorbing excess milk from the market.” 

“Given the robust production seen since the beginning of the year, it was somewhat surprising to see that at 1.4 billion pounds, total cheese inventories at the end of January were only 2.2 million pounds, or 0.2 percent greater than at the end of December. 

“This past year, total cheese stocks increased by 31.6 million pounds during the same period,” she added. “Perhaps even more surprising was the 0.1 percent decrease in American cheese stocks, indicating that the increase was driven by growing inventories of Swiss and other types of cheese.”