DES MOINES, Iowa – Although last month’s hog inventory was down for the second-quarter of 2021, overall numbers rose 1 percent since March, according to the June 1 USDA Quarterly Hogs & Pigs Report.

“The pigs per litter is down .5 percent this quarter, which is different than the pre-report estimates,” said Tyler Cozzens, agricultural economist at the Livestock Marketing Information Center in Lakewood, Colo. “The March data was 10.66, which is quite a bit lower than normal trends, which (dragged) the pigs per litter number. It jumped back up in April and May.”

Cozzens joined Lee Schulz, Iowa State University associate professor of agricultural economics; Kevin Grier, president of Kevin Grier Market Analysis and Consulting in Guelph, Ontario, Canada; and Steve Meyer, economist with Partners for Production Agriculture in Stillwater, Okla., in a June 24 webinar with reporters.

Sponsored by the National Pork Board and the Pork Checkoff in Des Moines, the report said, as of June 1, there were 75.7 million hogs and pigs on U.S. farms, down 2 percent from June 2020, but up 1 percent from March 1.

The report said the U.S. breeding inventory, at 6.23 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, but up slightly from the previous quarter. The market hog inventory, at 69.4 million head, was down 2 percent from last year, but up 1 percent from last quarter.

In addition, the March-May 2021 pig crop, at 33.6 million head, was down 3 percent from 2020. Sows farrowing during this period totaled 3.07 million head, down 3 percent from 2020.

The report said sows farrowed during this quarter represented 49 percent of the breeding herd. The average pigs saved per litter was 10.95 for the March-May period, compared to 11 million last year.

“There is a lack of revision in the report,” Schulz said. “They accounted for most of the changes in December 2020, which helps from a market reaction standpoint and interpretation of the report.

“Year-over-year change is about 11 percent down, all the way to up about 11 percent up in that June/August farrowing intention numbers,” he added. “What that suggests is that there’s a lot of possibility for change in the industry. Obviously, there is a lot of economic opportunities, and that has big implications for inventories.”

The report said U.S. hog producers intend to have 3.11 million sows farrow during the June-August 2021 quarter, down 4 percent from the actual farrowings during the same period one year earlier, and down 5 percent from the same period two years earlier.

The report added intended farrowings for September-November 2021, at 3.08 million sows, are down 2 percent from the same period one year earlier, and down 4 percent from the same period two years earlier.

“Specifically on the feed cost side of things, I think you’re looking at these lower farrowing intentions – actually lower than pre-report estimates – (that) kind of points to these producers taking a little more of a measured approach to production moving forward, and maybe looking at how these things will play out in the markets,” Cozzens said.

The report said Iowa hog producers accounted for the nation’s largest inventory, at 24.2 million head, but down 100,000 head from the previous year. Minnesota had the second largest inventory at 9.3 million head, and North Carolina had the third largest, with 8.3 million head.

Iowa’s March-May 2021 quarterly pig crop was 5.81 million head, down 3 percent from the previous quarter, but 2 percent above last year. A total of 510,000 sows farrowed during this quarter. The average pigs saved per litter was 11.4 million for the quarter.

In Illinois, total inventory of all hogs and pigs was 5.5 million head, up 5 percent from March 1, and up 3 percent from last year. The breeding inventory, at 650,000 head, was up 70,000 from the previous quarter, and up 80,000 from last year. The market hog inventory, at 4.85 million head, was up 4 percent from last quarter, and up 1 percent from last year.

In Indiana, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 4.4 million head, unchanged from a year ago. The breeding hog inventory, at 260,000 head, was up 4 percent from last June. The market hog inventory, at 4.14 million head, was down slightly from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the March to May quarter was 10.9 million, compared to 10.6 million from the same period last year.

In Michigan, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 1.26 million head, up 80,000 head from a year ago. The breeding hog inventory, at 115,000 head, was down 5,000 from last June. The market hog inventory, at 1.15 million head, was up 8 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the March to May quarter was 10.7 million, compared to 10.6 million from the same period last year.

In Ohio, total hog and pig inventory was estimated at 2.60 million head, down 150,000 head from a year ago. The breeding hog inventory, at 190,000 head, was down 20,000 from last June. The market hog inventory, at 2.41 million head, was down 5 percent from last year. The average pigs saved per litter for the March to May quarter was 10.4 million, compared to 11.1 million from the same period last year. (Kentucky and Tennessee’s total hog and pig numbers were not recorded in the report.)

Meyer said the June numbers should ease slaughter concerns in the fourth quarter this year, adding one big takeaway from the report was not just the pig crop, but the pigs per litter number.

“What it really tells me is that (in) the fourth quarter, this pulls our projected slaughter back significantly for the fourth quarter because of those lightweight inventories,” he said. “I think they probably reflect some losses from disease challenges over the last quarter; we didn’t know how much it would pick up.

“And that is reflected some in the pigs per litter at 10.95 (million),” he added. “I thought that would go back up, as did the analysts; they had an 11-plus (million) leading into the report. I kind of thought that’s where we were headed. So, instead of half a percent larger than last year, it comes in a half percent less.”

Grier said, “I revised my slaughter forecast lower after seeing the report because of one revision to the pig crop and reassessment of the actual pig crop from March to May, compared to what I was expecting.”

Meyer said the data from the June report could be good news for prices to close out this year. “I think that should be supportive for the fourth-quarter prices here,” he said. “It’s kind of one of those things where the top line numbers were no surprise at all. But there are details in there that were kind of odd.”

He said exports held on better than most analysts expected, but added the star is domestic demand.

“Domestic demand has been remarkably strong,” he said. “And it looks to me like it’s hanging in there pretty well. You might remember last year I said there could be some permanent advantages coming out of consumers doing a lot more comparison of the value of pork to the value of beef to the value of chicken at retail.

“We were able to put our product in front of them for direct value comparisons,” he added. “I think we did very well on that. That’s one of the reasons that our demand remains very strong now.”