MCHENRY, Ill. – Despite dryness in some of the Corn Belt, the corn crop went through pollination well, the president of Allendale, Inc., said recently.

“We know we need more rain to finish it out,” Steve Georgy noted. “It’s really hard when you start to hear arguments that we are so much below trend line yields right now. You really can’t make that picture; you can’t paint it right now. August will be a determining factor; how do we finish this crop.”

Georgy spoke during Allendale’s annual summer crop and weather outlook, released July 29.

Allendale estimated an average nationwide corn yield of 179.7 bushels per acre, slightly above the USDA’s last estimate of 179.5. The company projected average yield in Iowa to be 204, one bushel below trend. Average yields in Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio are expected to be six to nine bushels above trend.

“If you look at what the Eastern Corn Belt is doing, Ohio is above average, Indiana is above average, Missouri looks pretty good too,” he explained. “We know how warm it is and how warm it has been and how terrible things are in the Dakotas.”

The yield projections reflect those conditions, he said. Allendale estimated South Dakota’s average corn yield will be three bushels below trend and North Dakota’s, 10.

Georgy said a big concern for ethanol is where things go moving forward. “When you really dive in and you look at what our administration right now is trying to do, you’ve got to be a little bit concerned from the biofuel picture. What is going to happen as we go forward – the need for ethanol, where is that? The blending, where does that sit? Are we going to stay at a 10 percent blend or not? We don’t know.”

As for corn exports, China has been working to move toward wheat and rice feeding as a change in their feed situation, said Rich Nelson, Allendale’s chief analyst. “We do think China’s effort to restrict corn use will be successful for another month, month and a half,” he explained. “But we will suggest that (China) will have to do some type of buying, a pickup in their pace, in the coming months.”

Allendale estimated above trend soybean yields for Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, and below for Iowa. The weather contributed to Allendale’s estimate of South Dakota’s average yield at seven bushels below trend and North Dakota’s, eight. Nationally, Allendale’s average yield estimate of 49.5 bushels is below the USDA’s 50.8.

Weather outlook

Areas of the Plains and Midwest impacted by dry weather so far this year will probably see the situation continue into the fall, according to Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, Inc. He doesn’t anticipate an expansion of dryness into the lower or northeastern parts of the Midwest through August.

“For the last 90 days, there’s been quite a split personality, I suppose you could say, for the U.S.,” Lerner explained. “We had near to above normal precipitation in the lower eastern Midwest and across the southern states from Arizona all the way over into the southeastern corner of the country. In contrast to that, precipitation in the same 90-day period, ending the 26th of July, was below normal in the northwestern Corn Belt, especially in parts of Minnesota and the eastern Dakotas. That is also inclusive of some areas in Nebraska, Iowa and a few spots in Wisconsin.”

Subsoil moisture was adequate in most of the eastern half of the country, he noted. In a fair amount of the country, July’s temperatures were cooler than usual.

A La Nina weather pattern is expected to develop during the fourth quarter of the year, Lerner said. If the central United States finishes the summer dry, the La Nina could perpetuate those conditions into next spring, raising concerns over dryness in that growing season that could threaten U.S. production, he said.

As for the period of mid-August to mid-September, Lerner expects temperatures to be normal in Illinois, Indiana, Ohio, southern Michigan and the western parts of Kentucky and Tennessee. They will be near to above normal in Iowa and northern Michigan, and near to below normal in eastern and central Kentucky and Tennessee.

Precipitation looks to be normal in the region except for far eastern Kentucky and Tennessee, where it will be near to above normal, and in most of Iowa, where it will be near to below normal.