WASHINGTON, D.C. – Last month’s cattle numbers totaled 101 million head, 1 percent below the 102 million head last July, according to the July 1 USDA Cattle Inventory and Cattle on Feed reports, released July 23.

“That was about 1 percent below a year ago,” said Shayle Shagam, USDA livestock analyst. “The number of beef cows was 31.4 million head, which was about 2 percent below a year ago.

Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University agricultural economist, who analyzed the report, said the overall message of the cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports is “declining cattle numbers are improving cattle market conditions both for the remainder of the year, and into 2022, and beyond.”

“While it is not clear that drought has contributed significantly to cattle liquidation thus far, the potential is high for additional herd liquidation in the remainder of the year,” he said. “Tighter cattle supplies, combined with continued strong beef demand, leads to expectations for modestly higher prices for the remainder of 2021, and beyond.

“Fourth-quarter prices for calves, feeder and fed cattle are currently projected to average 8-12 percent higher year over year,” he added. “However, profitability will be tempered by higher input costs, including sharply higher prices for feed grains and supplements.”

“Producers also indicated that they intended to retain about 4.3 million head of heifers for beef cow replacement, which was about 2 percent below a year ago,” he added. “That left the number of other heifers that are not going to be retained for breeding at 7.6 million head, 3 percent below a year ago.”

He said the number of steers 500 pounds and over was 14.5 million head, about 1 percent below a year ago.

“The number of bulls was 2.1 million head, which was about the same as a year ago,” he said. “The number of calves under 500 pounds was 27.4 million head, about 1 percent below a year ago. We also got an indication for the first time of the 2021 calf crop, which was 35.1 million head, which was below 35.135 million head in 2020.”

During the first half of July, the USDA surveyed nearly 16,000 U.S. producers, asking them to report their cattle inventories as of July, and calf crop for the entire year of 2021 by Internet, mail, or telephone.

The report said all U.S. cows and heifers that have calved totaled 40.9 million head, 1 percent below the 41.4 million head from July 1, 2020. Milk cows, at 9.5 million head, up 2 percent from previous year.

In addition, all U.S. heifers 500 pounds and over July 1 totaled 16 million head, 1 percent below the 16.2 million head on July 1, 2020, the report said. Beef replacement heifers, at 4.3 million head, down 2 percent from a year ago. Milk replacement heifers, at 4.1 million head, up 3 percent from previous year. Other heifers, at 7.6 million head, 3 percent below a year earlier.

Moreover, U.S. cattle and calves on feed for the slaughter market for all feedlots totaled 13.4 million head July 1, down 1 percent from previous year.

The report said U.S. cattle on feed in feedlots with capacity of 1,000 or more head accounted for 84.3 percent of the total cattle on feed July 1, up slightly from previous year. The total of calves under 500 pounds and other heifers and steers over 500 pounds (outside of feedlots), at 36.1 million head, down 2 percent from the 36.7 million head on July 1, 2020.

Calves born during the first half of 2021 are estimated at 25.8 million head, up slightly from the first half of 2020. An additional 9.3 million calves are expected to be born during the second half of 2021.

The report said the inventory included 6.98 million steers and steer calves, down 1 percent from the previous year, which accounted for 62 percent of the total inventory. Heifers and heifer calves accounted for 4.32 million head, down 2 percent from 2020.

The report said placements in feedlots during June totaled 1.67 million head, 7 percent below 2020. Net placements were 1.61 million head.

During June, placements of cattle and calves weighing less than 600 pounds were 345,000 head, 600-699 pounds were 260,000 head, 700- 799 pounds were 375,000 head, 800-899 pounds were 405,000 head, 900-999 pounds were 195,000 head, and 1,000 pounds, and greater were 90,000 head.

The report added marketings of fed cattle during June totaled 2.02 million head, 3 percent above 2020. Other disappearance totaled 57,000 head during June, 8 percent below 2020.