CHICAGO, Ill. – Representatives from the U.S. apple industry recently held their 126th annual U.S. Apple Industry Outlook Meeting in Chicago.

The meeting, comprised of about 250 people, was a change from last year, when it was held remotely. “When our board of directors told us in May we had the go ahead for an in-person conference, everybody was really excited,” said Jim Bair, president and CEO of the U.S. Apple Association. “Attendance was fantastic. From the U.S. standpoint, attendance was at a record. People were very excited to meet in person again.”

One of the major purposes of this yearly meeting is to estimate production for the major apple producing states, which include Washington, New York, Michigan, Pennsylvania, California and Virginia. According to Bair, Washington produces two thirds of the country’s apples. Production estimates are calculated at the meeting at the end of the first day, based on information gathered from regional group meetings, said Diane Smith, executive director of the Michigan Apple Committee. To make their estimates, growers, packers, processors and shippers attend breakout meetings and report on what they are seeing in the various regions, then come to a consensus on a probable yield.

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) also produces statistics on apple production from the previous year, based on its own survey. Smith said that NASS’ 2020 figures for apple production in Michigan are “probably pretty accurate.” According to those statistics, Michigan harvested 22 million bushels of apples in 2020. The estimate just derived from the meeting forecasts that Michigan growers will produce 18.25 million bushels of apples this year, a 17 percent decrease.

The U.S. Apple Association estimates that U.S. apple growers will produce 244 million bushels of apples in 2021. That’s a 6 percent decrease compared to 2020 and a 9 percent decrease relative to the five-year average. “Our crop production forecasts take on oversized importance due to the fact that there is no futures market in apples,” Bair stated. According to Bair, apples are the most popular fruit for Americans, with the average American consuming 26 pounds of apples per person per year.

The conference went well, Bair added, with speakers talking about things that growers are interested in, such as trends in apple purchasing and consumption. “We had some good speakers this year, talking about megatrends,” he said. “Growers are very interested in hearing about the latest trends. Growers are very keen to keep their finger on the pulse of what’s going on in the retail sector.” The speakers included Rachel Cheatham, of Foodscape, and Drew Lerner, president of World Weather, Inc.

Smith said the dropoff in production this year in Michigan is due to spring frost that damaged apple blossoms. Growers have tools to try and keep the temperature in orchards warm enough to prevent damage to trees during a frost, such as fans to bring warmer air from higher up, spraying apple blossoms to create a kind of shield for apple blossoms, and fires around the perimeter of orchards to try and raise the temperature of the air. Sometimes growers even use helicopters as a sort of giant fan to bring warmer air down, Smith said. But there is only so much they can do and sometimes the crop yield can suffer. The damage this year is hardly catastrophic, however. Smith said that due to the peculiar biology of apple trees, a relatively bad production year is often followed up by a relatively good production year.