WEST LAFAYETTE, Ind. – A reported rise in African swine fever (ASF) cases in China could impact U.S. exports of corn and pork to the country, according to Jim Mintert, the director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture.

Private sources out of China are saying the ASF situation in the country is much worse than the government is admitting, Mintert said. From what is being reported by those private sources, their stories “don’t match up with what the (Chinese) government is telling us,” he explained.

“It’s impossible to get a really accurate assessment of how large the hog herd is (in China) and the impact for grain and pork exports,” Mintert said. “There are reports ASF has come back in a big way in China. That could impact negatively their need for corn from the U.S. If pork production will be smaller (in China), what are the implications for exports from the U.S.? Given the friction between the U.S. and China in recent months, will they look for other sources for their pork imports?”

Chinese government reports include estimates more comparable to reports issued by the USDA in this country, he noted. Private sources don’t provide the same level of detail, Mintert said, adding information from those sources is generally more anecdotal.

The Center hosted a corn and soybean outlook webinar Sept. 13. Mintert also spoke with Farm World after the webinar about exports and usage.

Hurricane Ida, which hit Louisiana and the gulf region in late August, left many without power, including shipping ports and elevators. The result has been shipping delays and a temporary closure of the Mississippi River.

“I don’t think we can really over state the impact of the hurricane on those export channels,” he said. “It’s really caused exports to grind to a halt. Some of the elevators, I think, have come back online, but some of them are still offline, still don’t have power. I think the damage to the grain shipping industry is probably, at least initially, every bit as strong as when we had (Hurricane) Katrina 16 years ago. How that plays out over the next few weeks is going to be really important in terms of our ability to recapture some export channels and export market opportunities.”

Depending on how long it takes for the facilities to fully reopen, the United States may lose some ability to completely recover markets that might have been temporarily lost, Mintert said.

As for ethanol, the continued pandemic may be keeping travel down, which has implications for corn usage, he stated. Not quite 40 percent of the nation’s corn crop goes toward ethanol, Mintert noted.

“Over the summer, some travel came back,” he said. “The USDA anticipates a modest recovery in usage and demand. But you see lots of news stories about people’s unwillingness to go back to the office. The day-to-day going to work is the driver on usage. We may not be seeing the pick up in commuting activity.”

Mintert was joined in the webinar by Michael Langemeier, a Purdue professor of agricultural economics, and Nathanael Thompson, an assistant professor.

Thompson discussed the best time to sell corn and soybeans. In making that decision, he said farmers should consider the costs to store their crop on farm versus using commercial off-farm storage.

For corn and soybeans, there appears to be little risk associated with storing the crops through the end of the year, Thompson said. “As you look further down the road, there’s a lot more that can happen but in the short run – between now and the end of the year – storing that, whether you were to take a position in the futures market or just store it on hedge – at least a portion of the crop that you stored – that’s really not a terrible strategy.”

Langemeier said 2020, 2021 and 2022 were and will be good years, but not as good as 2007-2013.

“It looks like there’s going to be money for owner withdrawals for family living, making principal payments and some money for expansion, but not quite as much as what there was in that earlier period,” he explained. “There’s still enough money in ’21 that you’re going to see some people looking at making some machinery purchases this year.”