KNOXVILLE, Tenn. – The fall calf run is in full swing as cow-calf producers across the country are busy marketing the spring calf crop, according to Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee assistant extension professor of agricultural economics.

“The proof of this statement is in the national feeder and stocker cattle receipts,” he said. “There are two primary indicators of the spring calf crop coming to market. Those indicators are a sharp rise in the number of cattle moving through auctions, and an increase in the percentage of cattle being marketed weighing less than 600 pounds.”

Based on Tennessee weekly auction market data, he said in his Oct. 29 report that steer and heifer prices were steady to $5 higher, compared to the previous week, with slaughter cow and bull prices at $1 to $2 higher, compared to a week earlier.

He said the fall calf run started the last couple of weeks in September, but the movement accelerated in October.

“Weekly receipts through auctions in October exceeded 200,000 head, which is not the highest weekly totals for the year, but near the top,” he said. “However, if one couples those weekly totals with the fact that about 60 percent of those receipts were for cattle weighing less than 600 pounds, then it is clear calves are being weaned at a rapid pace.

“This pace is expected to slow by late November,” he added, “but there will continue to be a large quantity of lighter animals moving through auction markets.”

He said another factor to consider as it relates to fall calf marketing is severe drought conditions across the country would have likely resulted in some calves being marketed earlier than normal.

“This means the market may not see many weeks of auction cattle receipts exceeding 300,000 head,” he said. “It is important to mention that direct marketing and video marketing receipts are also reported. However, most cattle moving through these two methods are typically heavier than 600 pounds.

“Sellers of freshly weaned calves should consider the current market supply and its influence on prices, while buyers should balance this information with the tough environmental conditions and highly-stressed cattle,” he added.

He said fed cattle traded steady $2 higher, compared to the previous week on a live basis; prices on a live basis primarily ranged from $125 to $127, while dressed prices were mainly $199 to $200.

“The 5-area weighted average prices through Thursday (Oct. 27) were $126.29 live, up $1.97, compared to last week, and $199.88 dressed, up $4.05 from a week ago,” he said. “A year ago, prices were $104.16 live, and $159.70 dressed.

“Finished cattle prices appear to have stampeded the invisible price fence this week,” he added. “The only way to know for sure this is the case is to see follow through in the market the next couple of weeks.”

He said, “The December live cattle futures contract is certainly calling for higher prices, and the last day of trade for the October contract is simply trying to catch up to cash trade. Answering the question of why prices finally moved higher is tough as packers continue to maintain leverage.

“However, packers are looking for the highest-quality cattle right now to fulfill the high-quality demands that come with the holiday season,” he said. “Expectations are for prices to maintain this week’s gains and potentially move toward the $130 price point.”

He said consumers and producers alike are feeling the squeeze as consumers are forced to pay more for meat and poultry products, while the farmer is not typically realizing stronger profits.

“Part of this is due to the meatpacking industry maintaining leverage in the marketplace and inflationary factors,” he said. “From the beef side, there is no indication wholesale beef prices will soften in the near term, which means retail beef prices will remain elevated.

“As beef prices go, so will pork and poultry prices,” he added. “The question yet to be answered is if consumers will continue to pay for meat when and if disposable income can fully shift back to entertainment and travel.”