WASHINGTON, D.C. – The USDA released several grain-related reports last week, and most of the numbers were as expected, according to analysts.

Among the reports released Jan. 12 by USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) were grain stocks and winter wheat acreage. USDA also released the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

An estimate that was unexpected was a lower U.S. corn export number, the analysts said. USDA reduced corn export estimates from 2.5 billion bushels in December to 2.425 billion in the latest report.

“(There was) a little bit of a surprise that they were maybe a touch aggressive in terms of reducing that export forecast, particularly in light of what’s taking place in South America with possible yield reductions down there,” said Jim Mintert, director of Purdue University’s Center for Commercial Agriculture. “I think the trade was a little bit surprised by that.”

Todd Hultman, DTN lead analyst, called the reduced export estimate the surprise of the day. “The demand change I did not expect to see today, and certainly not by a 75 million bushel reduction, was a change in the export estimate for corn,” he explained. “It wouldn’t have surprised me to see this reduction later in the season but we are still fairly early. So far, the export totals are keeping up fairly closely with a year ago.”

Hultman said the export decrease could be based in part on what’s happening in Ukraine, where corn exports are expected to increase from 32.5 million metric tons (in the December report) to 33.5 million, according to the January estimate. “I think part of Ukraine’s success there is related to USDA’s decision to reduce the corn export estimate for the U.S. I think those two items are linked.”

First quarter demand for U.S. corn – at 4.68 billion bushels – is healthy, while not quite as high as last year’s record level, he said. Corn shipments as of Dec. 30 were 577 million bushels, down 4 percent from a year ago. Sales commitments were down 7 percent from a year ago; USDA estimated a 12 percent decline in the January report.

“(USDA) is anticipating corn sales are going to be a little tougher from now on,” Hultman explained.

NASS estimated a corn crop for 2021 of 15.1 billion bushels, up slightly from 15.06 billion in December. If realized, it would be the nation’s second largest corn crop. The largest was 15.15 billion bushels in 2016.

The agency has estimated a record yield of 177 bushels per acre. NASS estimated harvested acres at 85.4 million, up from 85.1 in December.

Corn ending stocks were estimated at 1.54 billion bushels, up a bit from the December number of 1.49 billion. The January number was slightly above expectations, Hultman said.

For soybeans, NASS has estimated production for last year of 4.44 billion bushels, a record high. Harvested acres totaled 86.3 million, and yield was 51.4 bushels, up from December’s estimate of 51.2 bushels.

The production estimate is “still quite amazing and astonishing when you consider the amount of serious drought that we had actively throughout the year for much of the northwestern Corn Belt,” Hultman pointed out. “Of course, there were some late rains in August and September that I think helped save some of those crops. But just a pretty phenomenal year to get a record crop without a lot of great weather cooperation, at least in the northwestern Corn Belt. Everywhere else obviously did a lot to make up for the losses that were seen in the Dakotas and Minnesota.”

USDA raised soybean ending stocks to 350 million bushels from 340 million in December. First quarter soybean demand has dropped significantly, Hultman noted, from more than 1.8 billion bushels last year to 1.55 billion in the latest report. As of Dec. 30, U.S. soybean shipments were down 21 percent from a year ago. A big reason for the drop is China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans are down about 28 percent from a year ago, he said.

The soybean export number, at 2.05 billion bushels, was left unchanged by USDA in the January report. “That was the number a lot people were looking at coming in, wondering whether or not they’d put that back,” Mintert stated. “Of course, they pulled that back previously so no additional reduction in exports. I think that was the reason we didn’t see a change this month.”

Winter wheat acreage nationwide was projected to be 34.4 million acres, up 2 percent from last year. Farmers seeded 23.8 million acres of hard red winter (up 1 percent), 7.1 million of soft red winter (up 6 percent) and 3.6 million of white winter (up 2 percent).

USDA put wheat ending stocks at 628 million bushels, up from December’s 598 million. Dec. 1 wheat stocks, at 1.39 billion bushels, were less than expected, Hultman said. Demand for U.S. wheat during the first half of the season, at 1.29 billion bushels, was the most in five years.

The average farm price for corn was $5.45 a bushel, unchanged from December. USDA raised the average farm price for soybeans from $12.10 in December to $12.60. Wheat prices were also up from $7.05 in December to $7.15.

Winter wheat by state

NASS estimated Illinois at 730,000 acres of winter wheat, up from 670,000 the previous year; Indiana, 310,000, down from 340,000; Kentucky, 580,000, up from 510,000; Michigan, 470,000, down from 610,000; Ohio, 700,000, up from 580,000; and Tennessee, 380,000, down from 400,000. The agency stopped estimating Iowa’s wheat planted acreage in 2019. Kansas, with 7.5 million acres, is expected to plant the most wheat nationwide. Last year, the state had 7.3 million acres.