AMES, Iowa – Currently, there are no major drought or soil moisture concerns in the Midwest going into the 2022 planting and growing season; however, severe drought conditions persist in the West, according to a leading agricultural meteorologist.

“If the spring were to be wet, soils are mostly able to take up some additional precipitation,” said Dennis Todey, USDA Midwest Climate Hub director. “There are no major concerns about planting now. Some places in eastern Iowa and further east in the Corn Belt could be at a little risk because of wetter fall conditions. This is more of an issue further east in the Corn Belt.”

He said most of the U.S. east of the Mississippi is free of drought conditions, with only a few isolated areas; however, west of the Mississippi is a much different story.

“Much of the western U.S. is in some level of drought from both short- and long-term precipitation deficits,” he added. “Some large early winter storms have eased the situation in the Far West a bit. But the La Niña winter is leading to warm and dry conditions throughout much of the Southern and Central Plains, slowly worsening conditions in those areas. These include large parts of winter wheat areas.”

In fact, he said the winter wheat areas in the Plains are seeing effects of the drought worsening.

“This could lead to yield reduction or abandonment,” he said. “In the Northern Plains, there has been a mixed bag of snow. Much of the Northern Plains could use more snow for runoff to provide water supply for livestock and river systems. Spring rains are critical in the Plains to help rangeland recover from drought last year. Snow can help some. But rains through the spring are most beneficial.”

So far, he said, areas of Iowa and adjacent states are somewhat dry.

“At this point, that is not too much of an issue because we still have time for spring precipitation,” he said. “And planting into somewhat dry soils is not a problem – allowing for better root development. Also, starting dry often allows for quicker planting progress.”

Antonio Mallarino, Iowa State University professor of agronomy, and nutrient management research and extension specialist, said if soils were dry when the soil was sampled after the last harvest or are still dry when sampling in the spring, there are things farmers need to be aware of for spring planting.

“Be wary of topsoil or soil profile soil test results indicating much nitrate carryover, and be careful at reducing your normal nitrogen rate because high pre-plant spring rainfall may result in significant nitrate leaching,” he said.

“The soil test for potassium may be lower than it should be, mainly because of little recycling from plants, or residue since physiological maturity,” he added. “(The) soil test for phosphorus also may be lower than it should be, but often the effect is much less then for potassium. On the other hand, soil pH may be more acidic than it should be.”

Virgil Schmitt, Iowa State University extension field agronomist in Muscatine, however, said, “With current fertilizer prices, it doesn’t make sense to build soil test levels, so the recommendations for ‘low and very low’ testing soils should be trimmed back a little until fertilizer prices retreat.

“No fertilizer should be applied to soils testing ‘high or very high,’” he said. “For soils testing ‘optimum,’ there is less than a 25 percent chance of realizing a yield response, and yield responses are usually small, so this may be a year to either skip fertilizer on optimum-testing soils, or put on a low rate of fertilizer.”

Mark Licht, Iowa State University assistant professor of agronomy, and extension cropping systems specialist, said, no-tillage, strip-tillage and some other high-residue systems would facilitate more water infiltration, and therefore soil water recharge.

“I definitely agree that soil water recharge is still needed before spring planting,” he said. “The water table is still low. Is it time for concern? Not quite yet. Hopefully, spring rains will return and soil water recharge will occur before spring planting.”

Overall, he said the best strategy is to hold off on tillage as much as possible to reduce water evaporation from the soil surface.

“Make sure to follow an agronomically-sound fertility program to ensure nutrient deficiencies are avoided,” he said. “This may be harder to do with the cost and availability issues, but there is also the opportunity to cut back on fertilizer applications in sensitive areas, or areas with high to very high soil test levels.”

Andrew P. Griffith, University of Tennessee associate professor of agricultural economics, who focuses primarily on cattle, said with the drought in the West, prices are strong in most regions as feedlots are looking for cattle.

“Cattle price is only part of the story as profitability is more of a concern,” he said. “Prices for cattle will be higher, but input costs are increasing. More importantly for drought areas, feed prices will be even higher because of the drought, which means a cut in profits.”

He said if drought conditions persist in the Midwest and the Appalachians, however, it will push more cows and heifers in the slaughter mix in those drought regions.

“Thus, it will support calf prices across the industry because the market is already calling for more animals,” he said. “Drought regions will attempt to maintain the core herd, but it will be tough as hay and feed costs continue to increase.

“Continued drought in areas that produce feed grains will result in further increases in grain prices, which will put even more pressure on the drought regions, and may even slow down an attempt at herd expansion in other non-drought regions,” he added. “Prices this spring will be strong for calves and feeder cattle regardless of drought.”