The March planting intentions report verified corn plantings will fall in the United States this year at a greater volume than trade was expecting. U.S. farmers are now forecast to seed 90 million acres of corn this year, well below last year’s 94.6 million. Trade was expecting to see a number closer to 91.8 million acres, and in the Ag Outlook Forum, acres were projected at 91 million. Soybean acres came in nearly equal to trade guesses at 86.5 million, up from last year’s 83.6 million. Total wheat acres at projected at 47.5 million, just above the average trade guess, but down from last year’s 49.58 million acres.

The quarterly stocks data was mostly as expected. On March 1, the United States had 8.35 billion bu of corn in storage, just under the average trade estimate, but 13 percent above last year’s 7.4 bbu. Soybean stocks on March 1 totaled 1.85 bbu, up 9 percent from last year’s 1.69 bbu. Wheat stocks were just above trade guesses at 1.09 bbu, an increase of 16 percent from last year’s 941 million bu. On farm bushels are up 24 percent from last year on corn and soybeans and 20 percent higher on wheat.

Prior to these USDA reports, Stats Canada released its 2024 acreage estimates. Total wheat acreage in Canada for 2024 is projected at 27.04 million, nearly unchanged from last year when a slight reduction had been forecast. Canola plantings are forecast at 21.39 million, a 3.1 percent decline from 2023. Soybean plantings are forecast to decrease 1 percent to 5.58 million. Corn for grain acreage is expected to increase 1.6 percent from 2023 to 3.89 million.

One of the most watched domestic numbers going into the April supply and demand report is wheat balance sheets. For several months we have seen U.S. wheat carryout estimates shrink due to production issues, mainly excessive moisture in the Northern Plains and drought in the Southern Plains. These conditions have remedied themselves and production outlooks are starting to increase.

At the same time, the United States has seen demand for its wheat fade. This is mainly from much cheaper wheat coming out of the Black Sea, primarily from Russia. Ukraine is also offering wheat at a discount to the U.S. This has taken importer interest away from the United States and led to China canceling several of its previous purchases. In March, the USDA predicted U.S. wheat exports of 710 million bu and ending stocks of 673 mbu. To see these numbers reverse in April would not come as a surprise.

We are seeing more interest in U.S. red meat exports. Our year-to-date beef exports currently total 484 million pounds, a 4.5 percent decline from last year’s 497 million pounds of sales. Cumulative pork exports total 530.3 million pounds, down from last year’s 551 million pounds. Overall red meat exports are down 1.8 percent on the year.

In the March balance sheets, the USDA projected 2024 beef exports of 2.785 billion pounds and pork exports of 7.13 billion pounds. This is a decline of 253 million pounds of beef from 2023, but an increase on pork exports of 312 million pounds. One reason for the decline to beef exports is the smaller U.S. cattle herd, but also from a 42 percent increase in Brazilian beef exports as importers lift restrictions following the suppliers last mad cow disease outbreak. One of these is China who has been a major U.S. beef buyer.

Chinese officials have released data that may have long-lasting implications for the global soybean market. According to Chinese sources, pork is now the main protein in just 39 percent of the country’s diet. In 2014, pork was in 58 percent of diets across the country. As this trend continues to shift, China will likely start to consume less soy meal in feed rations. China has also seen its population decline in recent years and is now low enough that India is the world’s most populated country. This is further impacting total food demand in China.

The Brazilian analytical firm AgroConsult wrapped up its Brazil soybean crop tour with surprising results. AgroConsult is pegging Brazil’s soybean crop at 156.5 million mt, up 4.3 mmt from the group’s last estimate. Brazil’s soybean yields are going to be down 6.5 percent from last year, according to the firm, but high variability is being noted. Mato Grasso soybean production fell 16.8 percent this year from last, but production in Rio Grande do Sul was up 55 percent. The USDA last estimated the Brazil crop at an even 155 mmt.

The reason for the higher estimate from AgroConsult is acreage, as they claim plantings are 2.5 million acres more than other firms are using in balance sheets.

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